Market Overview: Indexes Rally on Trade Deal Hopes and Rate Cut Expectations
The U.S. stock markets are poised to close June on a high note, with all three major indexes trading near record levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday at 43,819.27, climbing 1% or 432.43 points, with 24 of its 30 components finishing in positive territory. The blue-chip index remains just 2.7% away from its all-time high recorded in December 2024.
Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished Friday at 20,273.46, advancing 0.5% or 105.54 points, driven by strong performances from AI-focused technology companies. The index reached a new record-high closing and posted an intraday all-time high of 20,311.51.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to finish at 6,173.07, marking a new closing high. During intraday trading, Wall Street’s most closely watched benchmark posted a new all-time high of 6,187.68, with eight out of 11 broad sectors ending in positive territory.
June Performance: Strong Monthly Gains Across the Board
Last week capped off what has been a highly successful month for Wall Street. The three major stock indexes – the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite – rallied 3.8%, 3.4%, and 4.2% respectively for the week. This strong performance has contributed to substantial gains for June, as markets today reflect growing investor confidence in the economic outlook.
Market sentiment has been bolstered by hopes for major trade deals, particularly expectations of a U.S.-China trade agreement, along with signs of ceasefire in Middle-East geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, investors are increasingly anticipating further interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025, which has fueled optimism in equities and other risk assets.
Sector Performance and Market Breadth
The Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials sectors have been leading the market higher, with their respective ETFs rising 1.2%, 1.7%, and 1% on Friday. Conversely, the Energy sector showed weakness, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) declining 0.5%.
Market breadth has been positive, with advancers outnumbering decliners on the NYSE by a 1.29-to-1 ratio. On the Nasdaq, a 1.11-to-1 ratio favored declining issues. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the “fear gauge,” was down 1.6% to 16.32, indicating reduced market anxiety.
Trading volume has been robust, with 22.07 billion shares traded on Friday, higher than the last 20-session average of 18.27 billion, suggesting strong participation in the market rally.
Tech Giants and AI Leaders Drive Market Momentum
AI-focused technology companies continue to be major drivers of market performance. Shares of industry leaders NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) gained 1.7%, 2.9%, and 2.8% respectively on Friday, highlighting the ongoing investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence technologies and their potential economic impact.
These gains reflect the broader trend of technology companies, particularly those with significant AI investments, outperforming the broader market as investors bet on continued innovation and growth in this sector.
Notable Premarket Movers for Monday, June 30
As markets today open for the final trading day of June, several stocks are showing significant movement in premarket trading:
In the green, INmune Bio, Inc. (INMB) is showing strong momentum, up over 72% at $10.86, as investors anticipate key data from the company’s Alzheimer’s trial of XPro, scheduled to be shared today.
Cyngn Inc. (CYN) is also surging, up over 64% at $22.40, while NanoVibronix, Inc. (NAOV) has gained over 38% at $1.20. GlucoTrack, Inc. (GCTK) is up over 33% at $6.97.
On the downside, Aethlon Medical, Inc. (AEMD) is down over 25% at $1.45, and Real Messenger Corporation (RMSG) has declined over 22% at $1.99. Achieve Life Sciences, Inc. (ACHV) is down over 15% at $2.98.
Key Economic Events and Earnings Releases This Week
Investors will be closely watching several important economic indicators and corporate earnings releases this week. The June jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday, will be particularly significant as it could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions in the coming months.
In corporate news, several major companies are expected to report earnings this week, including technology firms and financial institutions that could provide insights into the health of different sectors of the economy.
Global Market Context and Trade Relations
The positive momentum in U.S. markets comes amid improving global economic conditions and trade relations. Expectations of a U.S.-China trade deal have been a key driver of market sentiment, with investors hopeful that reduced trade tensions could boost global economic growth and corporate profits.
European and Asian markets have also shown strength in recent sessions, reflecting the global nature of the current market optimism. However, investors remain vigilant about potential geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, where progress toward ceasefires has contributed to market stability.
Outlook for July and Beyond
As we enter July, market participants will be focused on second-quarter earnings reports, which will begin to be released in the coming weeks. These reports will provide crucial insights into how companies are navigating the current economic environment and whether the strong market performance is supported by fundamental business growth.
Additionally, investors will continue to monitor Federal Reserve communications for clues about the timing and magnitude of potential interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Current expectations suggest that the Fed may implement further monetary easing if inflation continues to moderate and economic growth remains stable.
With major indexes at or near record highs, market sentiment remains positive, though some analysts caution that valuations in certain sectors, particularly technology, may be stretched. Nevertheless, the combination of anticipated trade deals, potential rate cuts, and ongoing AI innovation continues to provide support for equity markets as we move into the second half of 2025.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.