Mixed Signals Emerge: US GDP Nowcast Rises, Peru’s Copper Output Declines

The U.S. economic outlook for the second quarter has seen a notable improvement, with the New York Federal Reserve's GDP Nowcast rising to 1.71%. This marks an increase from the previously estimated 1.56%, signaling a more robust growth trajectory for the U.S. economy in Q2. The New York Fed's Staff Nowcast model incorporates a wide range of macroeconomic data to provide real-time estimates of GDP growth, reflecting the evolving economic landscape.

Conversely, Peru, a major global copper producer, reported a significant year-on-year drop in its copper output for May. The Ministry of Energy and Mines announced that production fell by 4.6% to 220,849 metric tons. This decline from the previous year highlights potential challenges in the supply chain for the critical industrial metal.

The contraction in Peru's copper production could have implications for global copper prices and the broader commodities market. Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer, and any sustained reduction in its output can affect global supply dynamics. While the country's first-quarter 2025 copper production had seen an increase, the May data suggests a recent downturn.

The upward revision of the U.S. GDP Nowcast indicates underlying strength in the American economy, potentially supporting demand for various commodities and goods. The New York Fed's nowcast is a dynamic tool that provides a real-time assessment of economic conditions, incorporating various indicators to project current quarter GDP growth. This positive revision could influence investor sentiment regarding economic resilience.