Welcome, dear investors, to the thrilling, unpredictable, and often baffling saga that is the Trump stock market. In a world craving stability, we are instead treated to a daily dose of high-stakes drama, where presidential pronouncements on social media can send indices spiraling faster than a tweet can be deleted. It’s a market less driven by fundamentals and more by the latest installment of the reality show, “As the Tariff Turns.”
The Tariff Tango: A Daily Dose of Volatility
Just when you thought you had a handle on global trade, President Donald Trump, ever the maestro of disruption, decided it was time for another round of his signature tariff waltz. The latest announcements, delivered with the characteristic subtlety of a sledgehammer, have once again reminded us that in this administration, trade policy is less about negotiation and more about impromptu declarations. On July 7, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.4%, the Nasdaq fell 1.2%, and the S&P 500 sank 1.2% following new tariff rates for a host of nations including Japan, South Korea, and various Southeast Asian and African countries., This wasn’t merely a dip; it was a collective market gasp, recalling the “historic rout” earlier in July where the S&P 500 bled 12% in just four days, a reaction to the initial “Liberation Day” tariffs.
The subsequent days offered little respite from the policy whiplash. On July 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 160 points, extending Monday’s losses, with the S&P 500 finishing down 0.7% at 6,234.9 and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.94% at 20,407.6. The Dow ultimately lost around 387 points, settling at 44,436, a drop of 0.87%. Futures for all three major indices slipped by 0.6% or more on July 11 after a new 35% tariff on Canada was announced. Analysts, ever the optimists, are now pushing the next interest rate cut to December, citing inflation and tariff concerns. Indeed, the overall 2025 tariffs are projected to reduce U.S. real GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points and lead to a 0.5 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate, translating to 641,000 fewer jobs by year-end. Consumers, naturally, get to foot the bill, facing a 2.1% increase in prices in the short-run, equivalent to an average income loss of $2,800 per household in 2025. Because, as the President famously suggested, businesses can just “eat the tariffs” rather than raise prices. A truly novel economic theory, that.
Specific industries, of course, bear the brunt of this grand experiment. Japanese automakers like Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co., and Nissan Motor Co. saw their U.S.-listed shares fall approximately 3% to 4% on July 7, following the announcement of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea., Meanwhile, the administration’s latest skirmish with Mexico over flight restrictions has put the long-standing partnership between Delta Air Lines (DAL $56.29) and Aeromexico in jeopardy., While Delta‘s stock price saw a 3.76% drop in June 2025, the company’s recent earnings resilience suggests it’s becoming adept at navigating these geopolitical headwinds.
Then there’s the curious case of Coca-Cola. In a move that truly encapsulates the administration’s unique approach to policy, President Trump took to Truth Social on July 17 to declare that Coca-Cola (KO) had agreed to use “REAL Cane Sugar” in its U.S. beverages.,, This, he proclaimed, “will be a very good move by them — You’ll see. It’s just better!”, Coca-Cola, in a masterclass of corporate diplomacy, offered a vague response, appreciating the President’s “enthusiasm” and teasing “new innovative offerings.”,, The market reaction was swift, if a tad ironic: Coca-Cola shares were up slightly, while major corn processors like Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Ingredion (INGR), whose high-fructose corn syrup would presumably be replaced, saw their stock prices drop as much as 6-7% in premarket trading on July 18, before partially recovering., The Corn Refiners Association, perhaps missing the memo on presidential dietary preferences, quickly pointed out that such a switch would “cost thousands of American food manufacturing jobs, depress farm income, and boost imports of foreign sugar, all with no nutritional benefit.”,, Details, details.
Fed Follies: Powell’s Perilous Position
If tariffs are the main act, the ongoing feud with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is the equally compelling, if not more nerve-wracking, subplot. The White House reportedly mulling an inspection of the Federal Reserve HQ is just the latest twist in a relationship that has, shall we say, “intensified.” The mere rumor of Powell’s potential dismissal rattled markets mid-week, with stocks sliding briefly on July 16.,, The dollar weakened, Treasury yields rose, and stocks fell to a two-week low on initial reports of Trump considering ousting Powell. However, in a move that could only be described as a classic Trumpian pivot, the President later stated it was “highly unlikely” he would fire Powell “unless he has to leave for fraud,” while simultaneously reiterating his long-standing criticism of the Fed chief for not cutting interest rates.,, The S&P 500, after an earlier drop, managed to rise 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 231 points (0.5%), and the Nasdaq composite added 0.3% to its record on July 16, as markets digested this latest episode of central bank drama. It seems investors have developed a remarkable tolerance for uncertainty, or perhaps, a morbid fascination with the spectacle.
Geopolitical Grandstanding: BRICS and Beyond
Beyond the domestic theatrics, President Trump has also turned his attention to the global stage, particularly the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, plus new members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and UAE). In a move that surely sent shivers down the spines of finance ministers worldwide, Trump threatened an “additional 10% tariff for any country aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of BRICS.”, He even singled out Brazil for a 50% tariff on imports starting in August. The market reaction was, predictably, a mixed bag of jitters and shrugs. On July 7, India’s NIFTY 50 index fell 0.1%, China’s Shenzhen Component shed 0.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.23%, while the Shanghai Composite managed a paltry 0.02% gain. It appears the world is still trying to figure out if these threats are genuine policy shifts or merely negotiating tactics delivered via social media. As one market strategist sagely noted, “We’ve seen this playbook before, and until there’s a clear escalation or a surprise, investors are taking a wait-and-see approach.”
The Vietnam trade deal, announced on July 2, provided another case study in the Trumpian art of the deal. The U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on most Vietnamese exports and a 40% levy on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam grants zero tariffs on U.S. imports., Shares of companies like Nike (NKE), Under Armour (UAA), and VF Corp (VFC), which have significant sourcing from Vietnam, initially rose after the deal was unveiled, with Nike‘s stock rising around 4%.,, However, they later declined sharply as details emerged, suggesting Vietnamese stocks themselves were “not sold on Trump’s trade ‘deal’,” with the VN Index in Ho Chi Minh dipping 0.2% and the HNX Index in Hanoi losing 0.3% on July 3. It seems even a “win” can feel a lot like a loss when the prior tariff rate was significantly lower.
The Show Goes On
In conclusion, the stock market under the current administration remains a testament to the power of a single individual’s pronouncements. From sudden tariff hikes that send major indices reeling, to the ongoing, public sparring with the Federal Reserve, and the bold threats against geopolitical blocs, the market is less a calm sea of rational actors and more a tempestuous ocean reacting to every ripple from Mar-a-Lago or Truth Social. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite have managed to hit all-time highs amidst this chaos, often recovering from initial dips, the underlying sentiment remains one of cautious observation.,, Analysts continue to warn that prolonged uncertainty could weigh on business investment and consumer spending, but for now, the show, with all its dramatic twists and turns, continues to captivate – and occasionally terrify – investors worldwide.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.