Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs (GS) maintains its Brent oil forecast but signals downside risks for 2025/2026, primarily due to demand concerns and higher-than-expected crude supply from OPEC+.
- South Korea has initiated the dismantling of propaganda loudspeakers along its border with North Korea, a significant step towards de-escalation following recent tensions.
- India is steadfast in its decision to continue purchasing Russian oil, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of imposing 25% tariffs and additional penalties on Indian goods.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed confidence in achieving a favorable outcome in ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, even as President Trump has raised tariffs on Canadian imports to 35%.
- Singapore's GIC is set to acquire a 25% stake in a new Spanish broadband venture, while the EUR/USD currency pair weakened to 1.1550 despite a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Energy Markets Face Demand Headwinds
Goldman Sachs (GS) has kept its Brent oil forecast unchanged for the near term but highlighted downside risks for 2025 and 2026, citing concerns over global demand and a potential increase in crude supply from OPEC+. The bank forecasts Brent oil to average $78/$73 per barrel for 2025/2026, trading within a range of $70-$85. This outlook comes despite expectations that OPEC+ will unwind 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts by September, including a final 550,000 barrels per day increase.
The downside risks are particularly noted for 2026, with factors such as softer U.S. economic activity, escalating tariffs, and ongoing softness in China's oil demand nowcast. Goldman Sachs has previously lowered its December 2025 Brent and WTI forecasts by $5, to $66 and $62 respectively, due to these concerns.
Korean Peninsula Sees De-escalation Efforts
In a significant move to ease cross-border tensions, South Korea has begun dismantling its propaganda loudspeakers along the heavily fortified border with North Korea. This action follows a promise by South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to restore trust and promote peace on the Korean Peninsula. The loudspeakers had been reactivated in June 2024 in retaliation for North Korea's campaign of sending trash-laden balloons into the South. Reports from Yonhap indicate that North Korea also appears to have suspended its own broadcasts targeting the South.
India Defies U.S. on Russian Oil Imports Amid Tariff Threats
India is continuing to purchase oil from Russia, firmly resisting pressure from the United States and threats of new tariffs from President Donald Trump. President Trump announced his intention to impose a 25% tariff on goods from India, along with an additional import tax, specifically citing New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian oil. Despite these threats, India's foreign ministry stated that its relationship with Russia is "steady and time-tested" and should not be viewed through the prism of a third country.
India's reliance on Russian oil has dramatically increased, now accounting for 35-40% of its total crude imports, up from a mere 0.2% before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Analysts suggest that if India were forced to shift away from Russian crude, its yearly oil import expenses could increase by $9-11 billion.
Canada Navigates U.S. Tariff Increases
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has expressed confidence in reaching a positive outcome in ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, despite President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 35% tariff hike on Canadian imports. The new tariffs, which took effect on Friday, July 31, 2025, are a significant increase from the previous 25%. However, goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are exempt, providing a "silver lining" for a majority of Canadian exports.
Prime Minister Carney emphasized that Canada will only agree to a deal that is "in the best interest of Canadians," prioritizing a good deal over a timely one. The Bank of Canada has forecast that up to 95% of Canadian exports could qualify for exemptions under USMCA.
Global Financial Movements: Investments and Currency Fluctuations
Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC is set to acquire a 25% stake in a new fiber optic broadband venture between MasOrange and Vodafone Spain (VOD), as reported by the Financial Times. This strategic investment marks a notable entry for GIC into Europe's telecommunications market.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD currency pair has weakened to the 1.1550 mark, despite a perceived dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. The pair is currently in a volatile holding pattern, with conflicting macro signals impacting its movement. Separately, the South Korean Central Bank recently sold 91-day bonds at an interest rate of 2.385%.
Public Health and Political Controversies
In a notable public statement, Dr. Marty Makary, the newly appointed FDA Commissioner, claimed in an interview broadcast in August 2025 that the NIH funded a laboratory that "brewed up a virus that killed 20 million people worldwide" [Headline: Dr. Marty Makary…]. This assertion references alleged NIH funding, likely through the EcoHealth Alliance, and is expected to fuel further debate on the origins of the global pandemic.
Texas Lawmakers' Exodus
In U.S. domestic politics, Democratic lawmakers from Texas have fled the state in an effort to thwart a Republican-led redistricting effort. Their absence deprives the Republican-controlled House of a quorum, effectively stalling the passage of a draft map that Democrats have condemned as a political power grab.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.