Key Takeaways
- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is advocating for substantial monetary policy easing, asserting that the current policy is 150-200 basis points too restrictive and suggesting a path of half-point rate cuts to achieve a neutral stance within six months.
- Miran maintains a more optimistic economic growth forecast than many of his Fed colleagues, projecting a "decent shot" at 3% growth for the second half of 2025 and into 2026, citing positive impacts from tax and regulatory policies, and immigration.
- He anticipates a decline in shelter inflation over the next 6-12 months and downplays concerns about tariff-driven inflation, highlighting a divergence of views within the Federal Reserve on these economic factors.
- In a separate development, Ukraine allegedly attempted to attack the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, according to reports from Tass, escalating geopolitical tensions.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has emerged as a vocal proponent for a more accommodative monetary policy, asserting that the current stance is 150-200 basis points too restrictive. He expressed a desire for the Fed to move "a lot closer to neutral" within the next six months, suggesting that this could be achieved through a series of half-point rate cuts. Miran was the lone dissenter in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent decision to cut rates by a quarter point, instead advocating for a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
Miran's perspective diverges from many of his colleagues, particularly regarding the economic outlook and inflationary pressures. He is "probably more sanguine on growth" than others at the Fed, seeing a "decent shot at 3% growth for the second half of 2025 and into 2026". He attributes this potential growth to changes in tax and regulatory policy, as well as immigration. Miran also believes that shelter inflation will decline in the next 6-12 months.
Regarding inflation more broadly, Miran finds "no material evidence of tariff driven inflation," a view that he notes seems to be "holding up others on the Fed". He further suggests that tariff revenues pouring in are driving down the neutral rate. Miran also highlighted that other Fed members are "not accounting for the population growth shock due to immigration changes," emphasizing that "huge population swings have material consequences". The long-term response to the Fed's most recent rate cut was described as "muted".
In geopolitical news, Russian state media outlet Tass reported that Ukraine allegedly attempted to attack the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. This incident, if confirmed, could further intensify the ongoing conflict and raise concerns about nuclear safety in the region. Previous reports from August 2025 indicated that a drone strike had damaged an auxiliary transformer at the Kursk plant, leading to a 50% reduction in the output of one of its reactors, though radiation levels remained normal.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.