Key Takeaways
- U.S. mortgage rates have reversed course, climbing after a period of steady declines, with the 30-year Freddie Mac fixed rate reaching 6.30% this week.
- Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee, are exercising caution on further rate cuts, warning that premature easing could risk persistent inflation, despite a stable but mildly cooling labor market.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) President John Waldron indicates that trade is a limiting factor for growth, predicting the U.S. economy will grow less than its potential in 2025, even as consumer spending remains strong with some stress in lower-income groups.
- Italy’s Economy Minister Giorgetti projects a two-year rollout for the digital euro, foreseeing potential "chaos" for cryptocurrencies and risks of European Union delays.
- Former President Donald Trump announced plans to continue providing farm aid, funded by tariff revenues, until tariffs are proven to benefit farmers.
The U.S. housing market is experiencing a shift as mortgage rates have begun to climb once more, ending a recent streak of declines. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage from Freddie Mac rose to 6.30% for the week ending September 25, up from 6.26% the prior week. Other reports also indicated increases, with Bankrate citing a 30-year fixed rate of 6.39% and Zillow data showing 6.45%.
Federal Reserve officials are maintaining a watchful stance on monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee supported the recent 25 basis point rate cut but cautioned against front-loading further cuts. He emphasized the need for confidence that inflation, which has been above the central bank's 2% target for four and a half years, is indeed transitory. Goolsbee described current Fed policy as "mildly restrictive" and noted a stable, albeit mildly cooling, labor market.
The economic outlook from Goldman Sachs (GS) suggests impending headwinds. President John Waldron stated that trade is a limiting factor for growth and anticipates that the U.S. economy will grow less than its potential in 2025. While overall consumer spending remains strong, Waldron highlighted that lower-income groups are experiencing some stress. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts real disposable personal income growth of 3.8% in 2025, with consumer spending growth expected to moderate to a healthy 2.3%.
In European financial markets, the introduction of a digital euro is poised to bring significant changes. Italy’s Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti indicated that the rollout of the digital euro would take two years, a period during which he warned that existing cryptocurrencies could face "chaos" and the European Union might experience delays.
On the political front, Donald Trump announced his intention to continue providing financial aid to U.S. farmers. This support would be financed by tariff revenues, and would persist until the tariffs are confirmed to be beneficial for the agricultural sector. This policy echoes his previous administration, which provided $28 billion in payments to farmers in 2018 and 2019 to mitigate losses from trade disputes.
Globally, other significant developments include Kurdistan's plans to restart oil exports within two days, following an agreement between oil firms and the Iraqi federal and regional governments. This resumption could add approximately 230,000 barrels of crude per day to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Separately, Amazon (AMZN) reached a $2.5 billion settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over allegations of misleading customers into Prime memberships and making cancellations difficult. The settlement includes a $1 billion civil penalty and $1.5 billion in refunds for roughly 35 million consumers, averaging $51 per customer. Amazon denied wrongdoing but committed to changing its practices.
In the Middle East, the IDF reported that around 700,000 Gazans have left Gaza City, with estimates from search results ranging from 450,000 to over 600,000 residents having fled since late August/September 2025. Domestically, U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. highlighted the public health crisis driven by ultra-processed foods, aiming for a federal definition and front-of-package labeling for these products by the end of 2025.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.