Key Takeaways
- U.S. Money Supply has surged to a record $22.2 trillion, marking its fastest growth since July 2022, amidst rising inflation concerns and a 93% estimated probability of recession by UBS.
- Former Federal Reserve Chairs and top economic leaders have filed a Supreme Court brief to prevent President Trump's removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, citing threats to central bank independence.
- Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with South Korea warning of North Korea's nearing development of an ICBM capable of hitting the U.S. with a nuclear warhead, and Eastern Allies cautioning Trump against U.S. troop withdrawals amid Russian incursions.
- Kraken, a major cryptocurrency exchange, successfully raised $500 million, achieving a valuation of $15 billion, signaling continued investor confidence in the crypto sector.
- The UK government is set to mandate digital ID cards for work, a controversial move aimed at curbing illegal migration and streamlining government services.
U.S. Economic Outlook: Surging Money Supply and Recession Fears
The U.S. economy is facing a complex landscape characterized by a significant expansion in its money supply and heightened recessionary concerns. The U.S. money supply has exploded to a record $22.2 trillion, experiencing its fastest growth since July 2022. This surge comes as global investment bank UBS estimates a 93% probability of a U.S. recession based on "hard data" from May to July 2025, describing the risk level as "historically worrying". While UBS is not officially forecasting a collapse, it anticipates an extended period of "soggy, soft, weak" growth.
Adding to the economic uncertainty, President Trump's new tariffs have reportedly lifted shares of PACCAR (PCAR) and Eli Lilly (LLY), with broader markets also posting gains across major indexes. This suggests a mixed market reaction to protectionist policies.
Federal Reserve Independence Under Scrutiny
The independence of the Federal Reserve is under an unprecedented challenge as all living former Fed Chairs and other top economic leaders have joined a Supreme Court brief supporting Fed Governor Lisa Cook against President Trump's removal effort. Trump is attempting to remove Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies, arguing that her removal would be a valid exercise of his authority. Cook's lawyers contend that such an action would destroy the central bank's independence and disrupt financial markets.
Geopolitical Tensions Escalate Globally
International relations are increasingly strained across several fronts. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has issued a stark warning that North Korea is nearing the development of an ICBM capable of hitting the U.S. with a nuclear warhead, with re-entry technology being the only remaining obstacle. This development significantly raises the stakes for global security.
Meanwhile, Eastern Allies are warning President Trump not to pull U.S. troops amid Russian air and drone incursions, stating that Putin is "pushing the limits". In Latin America, Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro claims to have received letters of support from Latin American military officers, who warn that "an attack on Venezuela is an attack on all of us". This comes as the U.S. Attorney General has ordered the deployment of Justice Department agents to ICE facilities following a shooting incident in Dallas, and directed counterterrorism task forces to investigate acts of domestic terrorism against federal agents.
Corporate Developments and Tech Innovations
In the cryptocurrency market, Kraken Crypto Exchange has successfully completed a funding round, raising $500 million at a $15 billion valuation. This capital injection is intended to strengthen the company's balance sheet, accelerate its acquisition strategy, and pave the way for a potential initial public offering (IPO).
In the tech sector, Microsoft Photos is slated to introduce an auto-categorization feature for pictures, enhancing user experience and organization. In China, Xiaomi is reportedly planning its next-gen phone chip but will not follow Apple's annual release cycle.
Social and Legal Headlines
A prominent New York financier, Howard Rubin, and his personal assistant, Jennifer Powers, have been charged with sex trafficking. Prosecutors allege they trafficked dozens of women, including former Playboy models, between 2009 and 2019, with encounters taking place in a soundproofed room described as "The Dungeon".
The UK government plans to require mandatory digital ID cards for work, a move intended to combat illegal migration and simplify access to government services. This controversial plan has faced opposition due to concerns about privacy and potential exclusion for millions without passports or driving licenses.
Finally, Congress is set to spend over $1 billion on security for the first time ever, as lawmakers cite safety fears following the killing of Charlie Kirk.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.