Key Takeaways
- Japan's industrial output significantly surpassed expectations in September, growing by 2.2% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, rebounding strongly from previous declines.
- Tokyo's CPI inflation accelerated in October to 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing expectations for potential gradual interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
- Coinbase (COIN) reported a strong Q3 2025, with revenue jumping 55% to $1.9 billion and profit surging nearly fivefold, driven by an explosion in crypto trading and derivatives activity.
- Netflix (NFLX) is reportedly exploring a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD) studio and streaming businesses, hiring a financial advisor for the potential acquisition.
- Oil prices are heading for a third consecutive monthly drop, with WTI near $60 and Brent around $65, as OPEC+ is expected to boost supply amid concerns of a surplus-driven market.
Japan's economy showed mixed but largely positive signals as industrial production surged in September. The preliminary report indicated a 2.2% month-on-month increase, significantly outperforming the estimated 1.5% rise and reversing the previous month's 1.5% decline. On a year-over-year basis, industrial production grew by 3.4%, far exceeding the 1.8% estimate and the prior -1.6%. This strong rebound suggests a robust manufacturing sector. Manufacturers are forecasting a 1.9% increase in October output, followed by a 0.9% decrease in November.
However, retail sales in Japan presented a more subdued picture. September retail sales rose by a modest 0.3% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, falling short of the respective estimates of 0.8% and 0.7%. This indicates that consumer spending growth remains somewhat constrained, despite a slight increase in department store and supermarket sales, which rose by 1.9% year-on-year.
Inflation in Tokyo, a key indicator for national trends, accelerated faster than anticipated in October. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing the estimated 2.4%. Core CPI, excluding fresh food, also increased by 2.8%, above the 2.6% estimate, while CPI excluding fresh food and energy matched this at 2.8%. This sustained rise in inflation supports the case for the Bank of Japan to continue its gradual approach to raising interest rates. Meanwhile, Japan's jobless rate remained steady at 2.6% in September, slightly above the 2.5% estimate, with the job-to-applicant ratio holding at 1.20.
In corporate news, Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) delivered a stellar Q3 2025 performance, with revenue soaring 55% to $1.9 billion, significantly beating estimates of $1.78 billion. Profit surged nearly fivefold, driven by an explosion in crypto trading and derivatives activity. The company's stock popped as it teased future plans for tokenized stocks and prediction markets, aligning with its vision of becoming an "everything finance app."
Elsewhere in the media sector, Netflix (NFLX) is reportedly "actively exploring a bid" for Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD) studio and streaming businesses. Reuters reported that Netflix has hired a financial advisor, Moelis & Co., to evaluate a potential offer, indicating serious intent in the exploratory phase. This development comes amidst Warner Bros. Discovery's strategic review, which has seen multiple unsolicited offers.
Australia's ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ) flagged a A$1.11 billion ($721 million) hit to its second-half profit after tax. The charges are attributed to one-off costs related to restructuring and regulatory settlements.
In commodity markets, oil prices are facing downward pressure, heading for their third consecutive monthly drop. Traders anticipate a surplus-driven market as OPEC+ is expected to boost supply by an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December. Despite sanctions on Russia and a U.S.-China trade truce, demand has failed to lift prices, which are hovering near $60-$65 per barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $62/b in Q4 2025 and $52/b in the first half of 2026.
Gold prices saw a jump after the recent Trump-Xi meeting, but the deal was characterized as "half-baked," leaving markets with lingering uncertainty. Even after a pullback, gold's monster 50% year-to-date surge reflects investors' current distrust in fiat currencies and central banks.
Finally, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to impact various sectors. The U.S. secured an additional $111 million to continue funding a program that provides subsidies for airlines serving small and rural airports, ensuring flights continue despite the shutdown. This program, known as Essential Air Service (EAS), will remain funded through at least November 18. The Department of Transportation has been able to secure additional budgetary resources to maintain program operations longer than initially expected.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.