Key Takeaways
- UK unemployment is projected to hit an 11-year high in 2026, potentially reaching 5.5% as weak growth, rising employment costs, and subdued private sector confidence weigh on the labor market.
- A Paris court has found 10 individuals guilty of cyber-harassment against France's First Lady, Brigitte Macron, sentencing them to up to eight months of suspended jail time for spreading false gender and sexuality claims.
- The U.S. Senate reconvened post-holiday recess and is scheduled for a major classified briefing on Venezuela, involving top administration officials and key congressional leaders, following the reported capture and indictment of Nicolás Maduro.
Economists are sounding the alarm over the UK economy, predicting that unemployment could surge to an 11-year high in 2026. A survey of 48 leading economists by The Times indicates that more than two-thirds expect the jobless rate to end 2026 between 5% and 5.5%, a notable increase from the current 5.1%. This would mark the highest unemployment level since 2015, surpassing even the peaks seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The bleak outlook is attributed to a combination of factors, including sluggish economic growth, escalating employment costs, and persistent private sector uncertainty. Specific concerns highlighted by economists include Rachel Reeves's £25 billion increase in employer National Insurance contributions, rising minimum wages, and forthcoming changes under the Employment Rights Bill. These pressures are expected to constrain private sector hiring, with some experts noting that businesses are being hit "from multiple directions" regarding employment costs.
GDP growth in the UK is anticipated to remain modest, between 1% and 2% in 2026, with a significant portion of this growth expected to be driven by public sector spending rather than a robust private sector. In response to the economic headwinds, over 80% of economists believe the Bank of England will implement at least two interest rate cuts in 2026, potentially lowering rates from 3.75% to as low as 2.5%. Inflation is also projected to fall close to the Bank of England's 2% target by the end of 2026. Adding to the unemployment concerns, a report by the Resolution Foundation suggests that the collapse of "zombie firms" struggling with increased business costs could further fuel job displacement.
In international legal news, a Paris court has delivered verdicts in a high-profile cyber-harassment case targeting France's First Lady, Brigitte Macron. Ten individuals, comprising eight men and two women aged between 41 and 65, were found guilty of spreading "particularly degrading, insulting, and malicious" false claims online. The comments falsely alleged that Mrs. Macron was born a man and linked her 24-year age difference with President Emmanuel Macron to pedophilia. Sentences ranged from mandatory cyberbullying awareness training to eight-month suspended prison terms. Mrs. Macron initiated the legal proceedings to "set an example" in the fight against online harassment, and the presidential couple is also pursuing a defamation lawsuit against conservative influencer Candace Owens in the United States.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate has returned to Washington following its holiday recess, with immediate attention turning to a critical geopolitical development. A major classified briefing on Venezuela is scheduled for key House and Senate leaders later today. This briefing will include members of the "Gang of Eight" – top congressional leaders and intelligence committee members – as well as chairs and ranking members of the Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs, and Armed Services committees. Expected attendees include high-ranking administration officials such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Attorney General Pam Bondi. The briefing comes amidst reports of the capture and expected arraignment of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who faces indictment for drug trafficking.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.