Key Takeaways
- The "MELANIA" documentary achieved the highest opening weekend for a documentary in the past decade, projected at an estimated $8.1 million, despite a massive $75 million investment by Amazon MGM Studios (AMZN).
- The film garnered an "A" CinemaScore from audiences, contrasting sharply with overwhelmingly negative critical reviews, including a mere 6% on Rotten Tomatoes.
- Amazon's (AMZN) substantial $40 million acquisition cost and an additional $35 million marketing spend have raised eyebrows, with Melania Trump reportedly earning $28 million from the deal, making theatrical profitability highly unlikely.
The documentary "MELANIA," chronicling the 20 days leading up to Donald Trump's second presidential inauguration, has made a notable splash at the box office, projected to earn an estimated $8.1 million over its opening weekend. This figure positions it as the highest-grossing opening weekend for a documentary in the last decade, surpassing the 2023 film "After Death," which debuted with $5 million. The film's strong audience reception is further underscored by an "A" CinemaScore.
Despite these impressive box office numbers for a documentary, the financial viability of "MELANIA" is under intense scrutiny due to its colossal budget. Amazon MGM Studios (AMZN) reportedly invested a staggering $40 million for the film's distribution rights and allocated an additional $35 million for marketing, bringing the total expenditure to an estimated $75 million. This substantial outlay is considered exceptionally high for a documentary.
Adding to the financial discussion, Melania Trump herself reportedly received $28 million from the film deal. Industry analysts suggest that for the film to break even, it would need to generate approximately $150 million worldwide, considering that theaters typically retain half of ticket sales. Given its current box office trajectory, the documentary is widely expected to incur significant financial losses for Amazon (AMZN).
The film's reception has been sharply divided. While audiences awarded it an "A" CinemaScore and a 98% positive audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, critical reviews have been overwhelmingly negative, with Rotten Tomatoes showing a dismal 6% and Metacritic a mere 6 out of 100. This stark contrast has led to questions regarding the authenticity of some audience scores. Furthermore, early reports indicated weak pre-sales and largely empty theaters in many locations, with only two screenings reportedly sold out prior to the premiere.
The significant investment by Amazon MGM Studios (AMZN) has also sparked speculation about potential political motivations and corporate positioning, particularly given the broader political landscape. Amidst the controversy, a docuseries spinoff is reportedly already in development.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.