Key Takeaways
- The New START nuclear arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia is set to expire on Thursday, marking the beginning of a world without the last major agreement governing nuclear arsenals.
- European markets saw significant declines in basic resources stocks, with the index down 3.3%, poised for its largest daily drop in nearly ten months.
- Iran has summoned all EU ambassadors to protest the bloc's designation of the Revolutionary Guard as a terror group, even as the Iranian Foreign Minister stated the country is "realistic" in ongoing negotiations with the U.S.
- Manufacturing PMIs in both Switzerland and Spain remained in contraction territory in January, signaling ongoing weakness in the industrial sectors, though Swiss services expanded.
- U.S. House Speaker Johnson predicts an end to the partial government shutdown by Tuesday, as Democrats continue to oppose funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
Geopolitical Landscape Shifts as Arms Treaty Ends
The last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, the New START treaty, is set to expire on Thursday. This development, reported by the Financial Times, heralds a new era without a major pact governing the world's two largest nuclear arsenals. The expiration raises concerns about global strategic stability and the potential for an unconstrained nuclear arms race.
Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions are escalating with Iran. The Islamic Republic has summoned all European Union ambassadors to protest the bloc's decision to list its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard as a terror group. Despite these protests, Iran's Foreign Minister stated the country remains "realistic" in its negotiations with the U.S., with a framework for discussions expected to be finalized in the coming days.
In the Middle East, Egypt is reportedly set to allow 50 people per day to cross via the Rafah crossing, according to Alqahera. Separately, the OPEC Secretariat has confirmed receipt of updated compensation plans from member nations Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
European Markets See Resource Sector Plunge, Mixed Economic Data
Europe's Basic Resources Index experienced a sharp decline of 3.3%, putting it on track for its biggest daily drop in nearly ten months. This significant downturn impacted major players in the sector. Among the European movers, Glencore (GLEN LN) saw a 4.1% drop, while Julius Baer (BAER SW) was down 1.9%.
Economic data from Europe presented a mixed picture. The Swiss Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 48.8, below expectations of 49.9 and down from a revised 46.4 in the previous period, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. However, the Swiss Services PMI showed expansion, rising to 53.8 from a revised 51.4. Similarly, the Spain Manufacturing PMI for January also remained in contraction at 49.2, missing estimates of 49.9.
Corporate News and Political Developments
In corporate news, Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) received a target price increase from JP Morgan, moving to $371 from $368. Tesla (TSLA) saw a significant increase in new registrations in Sweden, up 26.4% year-over-year in January, according to Mobility Sweden data. Financial institution Lloyds (LLOY) had its rating cut to "Sell" from "Hold" by Shore Capital, though its target price was raised to 91p from 84p.
On the political front, U.S. House Speaker Johnson has predicted an end to the partial government shutdown by Tuesday, as Democrats continue to fight against proposed funding for the Department of Homeland Security. In UK politics, Labour leader Keir Starmer indicated that Angela Rayner is "certainly not dead yet" politically and suggested her return to his Cabinet. The Mauritius Exchange announced plans to extend its trading hours starting in April, while Turkey raised the lower price limits on some gold and silver funds.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.