High volatility is expected this week. Today, JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM EST and Fed Governor Bowman's speech at 9:40 AM EST are key. Tomorrow, focus on ADP Employment Change at 8:15 AM EST and ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM EST, following recent strong manufacturing data that tempered expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings at 8:30 AM EST, though reportedly delayed due to a government shutdown, remain critical for the Fed's rate outlook, alongside Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM EST. Next Tuesday, Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST will gauge consumer strength amidst softening employment trends.
Traders should brace for significant market moves around Wednesday's ADP/ISM data and Friday's NFP report, if released, as these will heavily influence Fed policy expectations. Recent hawkish Fed signals suggest less aggressive rate cuts, making strong labor and inflation data potentially USD bullish.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.