Key Takeaways
- Nvidia (NVDA) has launched a new revenue-sharing and credit-support model for AI cloud providers, aimed at scaling "AI factories" and securing recurring usage-linked earnings.
- President Donald Trump has opted to continue diplomatic talks with Iran, delaying a potential return to all-out war despite missing an initial August 18 deadline for a nuclear deal.
- OCBC and other major financial institutions have cut oil price forecasts as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz rebound faster than market analysts previously anticipated.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains a central friction point, with Iran pushing for billions in transit fees while the U.S. insists on free passage for global shipping.
Nvidia Unveils "AI Factory" Revenue-Sharing Strategy
Nvidia (NVDA) is fundamentally altering its business model by partnering with AI cloud providers through a new revenue-sharing and credit-support framework. This initiative is designed to accelerate the deployment of DSX AI factories, which are large-scale data centers optimized for "manufacturing" AI tokens at scale. Under this model, Nvidia will not only earn revenue from hardware sales but also capture a recurring share of the cloud services revenue generated by its partners.
Early adopters of this strategy include Sharon AI, which is deploying up to 40,000 Grace Blackwell GB300 GPUs, and Firmus Technologies. Firmus is currently constructing a 360MW data center campus in Indonesia, expected to be operational by Q1 2027. This shift aims to provide AI-native startups and enterprises with faster access to high-end compute without the traditional barriers of capital-intensive infrastructure and long-term hardware procurement cycles.
Trump Prioritizes Diplomacy Over "Forever Wars"
Despite his campaign pledge to end "forever wars," President Donald Trump now faces the risk of "forever talks" with Iran. According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, Trump has been briefed on options for large-scale airstrikes by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine, but he has chosen to stick with diplomacy for the time being. The President reportedly believes that a return to full-scale conflict could permanently derail the goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.
The administration has signaled a willingness to let negotiations extend beyond the August 18 deadline, prioritizing a durable agreement over a rigid timeline. While Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff continue indirect talks in Doha, the U.S. maintains a policy of one-off retaliatory strikes in response to violations of the current memorandum of understanding. This "holstered" military option keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in global markets, even as active hostilities remain paused.
Oil Forecasts Slashed as Hormuz Supply Recovers
Financial institutions, including OCBC, UBS, and Goldman Sachs, have begun lowering their oil price forecasts for the remainder of 2026. The revisions come as Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes rebound more quickly than expected following a period of severe disruption. Analysts now expect Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, significantly easing the supply fears that had previously pushed prices toward the $100 per barrel mark.
Goldman Sachs recently lowered its Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter, down from a previous estimate of $90. While the reopening of the strait is a bearish signal for prices, a significant point of contention remains: Iran’s demand for billions of dollars in transit fees. If this fee dispute remains unresolved, it could lead to persistent volatility in shipping costs and freight insurance, even if the physical flow of oil remains steady.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.