Key Takeaways
- Airbus (AIR) lowered its 20-year industry-wide delivery forecast by 1% to 42,060 units, citing trade tensions and the impact of regional conflicts on global aviation.
- Passenger traffic growth projections were adjusted to 3.9% annually, a slight downgrade from the 4.1% "like-for-like" figure estimated a year ago.
- Replacement demand is rising, with 47% of new deliveries expected to replace older, less efficient jets, up from 45% in previous outlooks.
- Asia remains the primary growth engine, expected to account for nearly 50% of all new aircraft deliveries through 2045.
- No immediate decision on a larger A350; marketing executives confirmed the company is "always looking at studies" but has not committed to a stretched variant.
Airbus (AIR) has revised its long-term outlook for the global aviation industry, trimming its 20-year forecast for passenger jet deliveries by 1% across all categories. The European planemaker now expects a total of 42,060 deliveries between 2026 and 2045, down from the 42,450 projected in its previous rolling forecast. This adjustment follows a period of significant geopolitical disruption, including trade tensions and the ongoing impact of the Iran war, which have tempered the post-pandemic recovery.
The company also moderated its expectations for passenger traffic growth, now forecasting an average annual increase of 3.9%. While this figure is nominally higher than some previous headline figures, executives noted it represents a downgrade from the 4.1% growth rate projected on a like-for-like basis last year. Airbus (AIR) Head of Market Analysis Antonio Da Costa noted that the "post-COVID recovery has effectively flattened" as airlines grapple with higher fuel costs and shifting economic conditions.
In a notable shift in fleet strategy, Airbus (AIR) predicts that 47% of all new deliveries will be used to replace aging aircraft, an increase from the 45% previously forecast. This trend is driven by a global push for decarbonization and the superior fuel efficiency of next-generation models like the A320neo and A350. By 2045, Airbus (AIR) expects nearly 100% of the global fleet to consist of these newest-generation aircraft, compared to just 39% today.
The delivery forecast for single-aisle jets—the industry's most active segment—was trimmed to 33,920 units, down from 34,250. Wide-body demand saw a similar 1% reduction, now estimated at 8,140 deliveries. Despite these slight reductions, the manufacturer emphasized that demand remains resilient, particularly in Asia, where a growing middle class and rapid urbanization in secondary cities are creating new "city-pair" routes that bypass traditional megahubs.
Regarding potential new products, Airbus (AIR) marketing officials addressed rumors of a larger A350 variant to compete with Boeing (BA) and its 777X. The company stated it is "always looking at studies" but emphasized that no decision whatsoever has been made. For now, the focus remains on fulfilling a record order book of approximately 9,000 aircraft and meeting ambitious production targets for the existing A320 and A350 families.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.