Key Takeaways
- Gold prices are on track for a weekly loss of over 1% as military escalations in the Gulf region between the U.S. and Iran fuel expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
- PepsiCo (PEP) shares fell 3.3% after the company warned that rising fuel prices and "tightening consumer budgets" are stalling the recovery of food and beverage sales in the U.S.
- Tencent (TCEHY) is reportedly leading a deal to buy back AI startup Manus after Chinese regulators forced Meta Platforms (META) to unwind its $2 billion acquisition of the firm.
- The Japanese government is revising its economic blueprint to explicitly mention the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) autonomy, attempting to calm bond markets after yields hit 30-year highs.
- Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388.HK) is seeing an influx of international listing applications from Canada, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan as it seeks to diversify its issuer base.
Commodities and Geopolitics
Gold (GC=F) faced downward pressure on Friday, with spot prices holding near $4,122 per ounce as investors weighed the impact of renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Following U.S. strikes on Iran, Iranian forces launched retaliatory attacks on military infrastructure in Gulf states, effectively ending a three-week ceasefire.
Market participants have responded by raising the probability of a September interest rate hike to 64%, up from 54% just a week ago. The prospect of higher rates for longer has dampened the appeal of non-yielding bullion, while Silver, Platinum, and Palladium are also on course for weekly declines.
Corporate Earnings and Inflation
PepsiCo (PEP) CEO Ramon Laguarta issued a cautious outlook for the second half of 2026, noting that inflationary pressures are making U.S. consumers more selective. While the company's international divisions saw revenue growth of at least 10%, organic revenue in the North American snacks business fell 2% as price cuts failed to stimulate volume.
The company highlighted that the near-term outlook for the U.S. market is heavily dependent on gas prices, which have surged toward $80 a barrel due to the ongoing conflict. To mitigate these costs, PepsiCo is pivoting toward "healthier" offerings, including zero-sugar drinks and protein-rich snacks, which continue to show momentum.
Technology and Regulatory Shifts
In a significant move for the AI sector, Tencent (TCEHY) is in talks to become the largest shareholder in Manus, an AI agent startup. This follows a rare intervention by Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which ordered Meta Platforms (META) to divest the company citing violations of investment rules.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs (GS) has issued an internal memo restricting employees from using prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for wagers on elections or macroeconomic data. The bank warned that repeated violations of this policy, intended to prevent insider trading risks, could result in termination.
International Trade and Finance
The European Union has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of Chinese Pekin ducks, following complaints from five EU producers. The probe alleges that Chinese exporters benefit from state subsidies and cheap feed, causing "substantial adverse effects" on the European poultry industry's market share and pricing.
In Asia, the Malaysian ringgit appreciated to 4.0720 against the U.S. dollar, supported by strong electrical and electronics exports. Concurrently, Hong Kong’s exchange is processing listing applications from diverse entities, including Kazakhstan’s national railway operator and Canada’s Silvercorp Metals, as it strengthens its role as a global fundraising hub.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.