Key Takeaways:
- The Pentagon has initiated a 30-day review of the AUKUS security pact's submarine component (Pillar 1), driven by concerns over costs, delays, and alignment with a potential "America First" agenda.
- Australia is actively engaging with the Pentagon on this review, with Ambassador Kevin Rudd and Defence Minister Richard Marles expressing confidence that the critical defense partnership will continue.
- The AUKUS submarine deal, projected to cost over $245 billion, faces challenges including $17 billion in cost overruns and two-year delays in the U.S. Virginia-class submarine program, highlighting pressures on the defense industrial base.
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The Pentagon has launched a 30-day review of the AUKUS security pact's Pillar 1, focusing on Australia's acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. This review, reportedly led by Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, aims to ensure the initiative aligns with a potential "America First" agenda, raising questions about the future of the multi-billion dollar deal.
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Australian officials, including Ambassador to the U.S. Kevin Rudd and Defence Minister Richard Marles, have confirmed their engagement with the Pentagon regarding the review. Marles stated the review is "natural" for an incoming administration and expressed confidence in the pact's continuation, emphasizing Australia's commitment, including a $3 billion pledge to support U.S. submarine production.
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The AUKUS submarine program is projected to cost over $245 billion over 30 years, with current U.S. Virginia-class submarine production already facing significant headwinds. A 2024 Congressional estimate cited by the Pentagon indicates these submarines are two years behind schedule and $17 billion over budget through 2030, underscoring the immense industrial and financial challenges for the defense sector involved in such large-scale projects.
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The review has sparked debate among U.S. politicians, with some Senate Democrats criticizing the move, arguing it could undermine alliances and benefit adversaries like China. Beijing has consistently opposed AUKUS since its inception in 2021, viewing it as a threat to regional stability and a contributor to a new arms race in the Indo-Pacific.
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Within Australia, opinions on the review vary, with former Prime Minister Scott Morrison downplaying concerns as routine, while former Prime Minister Paul Keating, a long-standing critic, suggested the review might "save Australia from itself." The United Kingdom, the third AUKUS partner, has already conducted its own review and reaffirmed its commitment to the pact.

Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.