Executive Summary
As the United States reaches the traditional peak of the summer driving season in July 2025, crude oil markets present a complex picture shaped by geopolitical tensions, evolving supply dynamics, and shifting demand patterns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil trades at $68.20 per barrel as of July 9, 2025, up 4.95% over the past month but still 16.94% lower than a year ago, while Brent crude sits at $70.11 per barrel, up 4.84% monthly but down 17.60% year-over-year.
The summer of 2025 has been marked by significant volatility driven by the June Israel-Iran conflict, OPEC+ production decisions, and changing consumption patterns in key markets. Despite traditional seasonal strength, gasoline demand has shown signs of structural weakness compared to pre-pandemic levels, while supply dynamics continue to evolve with the United States maintaining its position as the world’s largest oil producer.
Current Market Conditions
Price Environment
The crude oil market in July 2025 reflects a recovery from the sharp price declines experienced in April and May. Brent crude oil futures slumped by $14/bbl in April to a four-year low of just above $60/bbl by early May, driven by trade tensions and concerns about global economic growth. However, prices have since rebounded, supported by summer demand, geopolitical risk premiums, and OPEC+ production management.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil to average $69 per barrel for 2025, with expectations of $58 per barrel in 2026. This forecast incorporates the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict that erupted in June, which temporarily added a significant risk premium to oil prices.
U.S. Production Dynamics
The United States continues to dominate global oil production, though growth is moderating. U.S. crude oil production reached an all-time high of just over 13.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2025. However, declining oil prices have contributed to U.S. producers slowing their drilling and completion activity, with production forecast to decline to less than 13.3 million b/d by the fourth quarter of 2026.
The production slowdown reflects economic realities in the shale sector. The significant drop in oil prices rattled the US shale patch, with firms arguing they need $65/bbl on average to profitably drill. This price sensitivity has become a key factor in global supply dynamics, as U.S. shale serves as a swing producer responding quickly to price signals.
Summer Driving Season Analysis
Gasoline Demand Trends
The 2025 summer driving season presents a paradox of strong seasonal patterns but underlying structural weakness. U.S. gasoline demand rose sharply to almost 9.5 million barrels per day in late May 2025, approximately 800,000 barrels more than the previous week, even before the official start of the summer driving season.
However, longer-term trends suggest peak gasoline demand may be behind us. Historical data shows that while summer driving activity remains robust, total gasoline consumption continues to lag pre-pandemic levels due to:
- Improved Vehicle Efficiency: Modern vehicles, particularly pickup trucks, have seen efficiency improvements of nearly 20% over the past decade
- Electric Vehicle Adoption: Growing EV market share is beginning to impact traditional fuel demand
- Changed Driving Patterns: Post-pandemic work-from-home trends continue to affect commuting patterns
Retail Gasoline Prices
U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged $3.25 per gallon for the week ending July 7, 2025, with the national average at $3.17 as of July 3. These prices represent a moderate level by historical standards, significantly below the peaks seen in 2022 but above the lows of 2020.
Regional variations remain significant, with California maintaining the highest prices at $4.57 per gallon, followed by Hawaii at $4.48, while Mississippi offers the cheapest gas at $2.71 per gallon.
Refinery Operations
U.S. refineries have operated at high utilization rates to meet summer demand. Refinery capacity utilization reached 94.90% for the week ending June 27, 2025, reflecting strong operational performance as refiners maximize gasoline production during the peak demand season.
OPEC+ Production Strategy
OPEC+ has pursued an increasingly aggressive production strategy throughout 2025, unwinding previous voluntary cuts faster than initially planned. Eight key OPEC+ members agreed to increase supply by 548,000 barrels per day in August, putting the group on pace to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts one year earlier than originally outlined.
This acceleration follows a pattern of steadily increasing production:
- April: 137,000 b/d increase
- May-July: 411,000 b/d monthly increases
- August: 548,000 b/d increase
The group’s strategy reflects confidence in demand recovery and a desire to recapture market share, though Goldman Sachs analysts note “the diminishing price reaction to a 1 million barrel per day supply cut — from $10 in 2023 to $8 in 2024 and $4 in 2025”, suggesting the market has become less responsive to OPEC+ actions.
Geopolitical Risk Factors
The June 2025 Israel-Iran Conflict
The most significant geopolitical event affecting oil markets in recent months was the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025. Israel launched a series of air strikes on targets in Iran on June 13, with the two countries fighting a shadow war that included energy infrastructure being targeted for the first time.
The conflict’s impact on oil markets included:
- Oil prices spiking more than 13% during the conflict, with Brent crude futures reaching a six-month high of $74/bbl
- Iran partially suspending production at the world’s biggest natural gas field, South Pars, after an Israeli strike
- Renewed concerns about potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz
However, oil prices fell sharply following a ceasefire announcement, returning to levels last seen before the conflict, demonstrating the market’s resilience and tendency to quickly price out geopolitical risk when actual supply disruptions don’t materialize.
Strait of Hormuz Vulnerability
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy markets. This narrow stretch of water, just 29 nautical miles wide at its tightest point, funnels nearly a third of the world’s seaborne oil and a fifth of global LNG. During the June conflict, concerns about potential closure drove significant price volatility, with analysts warning that disruption to shipping through the strait could push prices to $120 per barrel.
Global Supply and Demand Balance
Supply Outlook
World oil supply is projected to rise by 1.8 mb/d to 104.9 mb/d in 2025 and by 1.1 mb/d in 2026, led by non-OPEC+ gains of 1.4 mb/d and 840 kb/d, respectively. This robust supply growth, combined with moderating demand, suggests a well-supplied market despite periodic geopolitical tensions.
Key supply factors include:
- U.S. Production: Plateauing around 13.4 million b/d
- OPEC+ Strategy: Accelerating production increases
- Non-OPEC Growth: Strong contributions from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada
Demand Dynamics
Global oil demand growth has been revised downward throughout 2025. The IEA forecasts world oil demand to increase by 720 kb/d in 2025, marginally below previous estimates, as weak deliveries in the United States and China undercut resilience elsewhere.
Demand headwinds include:
- Slowing Chinese economic growth
- Trade policy uncertainties
- Accelerating energy transition in developed markets
- Structural changes in transportation patterns
Market Outlook
Near-Term Prospects
For the remainder of summer 2025, oil markets face competing forces:
Bullish Factors:
- Peak seasonal demand for gasoline and jet fuel
- Potential for hurricane disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
- Strong refinery margins supporting crude demand
Bearish Factors:
- OPEC+ production increases
- Abundant global oil inventories
- Economic growth concerns
- Structural demand challenges
Medium-Term Considerations
Looking toward late 2025 and into 2026, several trends appear likely to dominate:
- Price Pressure: J.P. Morgan maintains its Brent price forecast of $66/bbl for 2025 and $58/bbl for 2026, suggesting continued downward pressure on prices
- Supply Growth: Continued non-OPEC+ production growth, particularly from the Americas, will keep markets well-supplied
- Demand Evolution: The pace of energy transition and economic growth in emerging markets will be critical in determining demand trajectories
- OPEC+ Strategy: The group’s ability to manage production in a potentially oversupplied market will be tested
Investment Implications
For energy investors and market participants, the current environment suggests:
- Volatility Opportunities: Geopolitical events continue to create trading opportunities, though the market’s muted responses suggest risk premiums are compressed
- Structural Headwinds: Long-term investors must consider peak demand scenarios and the energy transition’s acceleration
- Regional Dynamics: Focus on assets with favorable breakeven costs and access to growth markets
- Downstream Strength: Refining margins in May were at their highest levels since 1Q24, suggesting downstream operations may outperform upstream in the near term
Conclusion
The July 2025 crude oil market epitomizes the transitional phase the global energy system is experiencing. While traditional seasonal patterns like the summer driving season continue to influence markets, structural changes in demand, evolving supply dynamics, and geopolitical uncertainties create a complex trading environment.
The market’s quick recovery from the June Israel-Iran conflict demonstrates both its resilience and the abundance of global supply. With the United States now the world’s largest producer of oil and OPEC+ accelerating production increases, supply-side concerns have diminished except during acute geopolitical crises.
Looking forward, market participants should prepare for continued volatility within a broader context of adequate supply and evolving demand patterns. The summer of 2025 may well be remembered not for record prices or severe disruptions, but as another milestone in the oil market’s gradual transformation toward a new equilibrium in an energy transition era.
As we progress through the peak driving season, the interplay between traditional seasonal strength, geopolitical risk, and structural market changes will continue to shape prices and investment decisions. Market participants would be wise to maintain flexibility in their strategies while recognizing that the oil market of 2025 operates under fundamentally different dynamics than those of previous decades.
Terry brings over 25 years of experience in stock and options trading, having actively navigated markets since 1999. A seasoned trader who has weathered multiple market cycles—from the dot-com boom and bust through the 2008 financial crisis to today’s dynamic markets—he combines deep market knowledge with technical expertise.
As a developer and digital creator, Terry has built and launched multiple financial websites and trading tools, bridging the gap between complex market analysis and accessible financial information. His unique perspective comes from hands-on experience on both sides of the screen: as an active trader executing strategies and as a developer creating platforms that serve the trading community.
Terry’s coverage focuses on actionable market analysis, options strategies, and technical insights drawn from real-world trading experience. He specializes in identifying market trends, analyzing options flows, and translating complex market movements into clear, practical insights for traders at all levels.
When not analyzing markets or developing new tools, Terry continues to actively trade and test strategies, ensuring their analysis remains grounded in current market realities.