Tuesday's ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM EST is the highest impact event, crucial after last week's weak NFP data reversed Fed rate cut expectations for September. Markets are now pricing in over 80% chance of a September rate cut, following July's dismal jobs report and downward revisions to prior months. This week also features several Fed speeches, including Collins, Cook, Daly, Bostic, and Musalem, which will be closely watched for any shifts in the Fed's "wait-and-see" stance amidst concerns about the labor market and inflation. Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday at 8:30 AM EST and UoM Consumer Inflation Expectations on Friday at 10:00 AM EST will provide further insights into the economy's health and consumer sentiment, which has been weaker despite strong hard economic indicators. Traders should monitor these releases for confirmation of a cooling labor market and potential dovish signals from the Fed, especially given recent political developments impacting data credibility. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently estimates Q3 GDP growth at 2.1%, down from prior estimates, suggesting a slowing economy. This week's data could solidify expectations for further rate cuts beyond September.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.