High-impact CPI data is due Tuesday, August 12, at 8:30 AM EST, crucial for Fed rate path amidst rising inflation expectations and tariff impacts. Producer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims follow Thursday, August 14, at 8:30 AM EST, impacting inflation and labor market views after recent weak jobs data. Friday, August 15, brings high-volatility Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST, indicating consumer strength. Fed speeches throughout the week offer further policy clues, with markets keenly watching for dovish shifts and political pressures.
Traders should brace for significant volatility around Tuesday's CPI release, potentially dictating short-term Fed expectations and dollar movements. Strong retail sales on Friday could reinforce hawkish sentiment, while weak data might signal economic slowdown and increased recession risks. Position carefully, especially in interest-rate sensitive assets.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.