Key Takeaways
- The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly revised its 2025 global goods trade growth forecast upwards to 0.9%, attributing the boost to a surge in U.S. imports driven by front-loading ahead of new tariffs.
- Imposter scams cost older Americans a staggering $700 million in 2024, representing a 362% increase since 2020, with many victims reporting the complete depletion of their 401(k) savings.
- COVID-19 cases are on the rise across much of the U.S., with the highest activity levels concentrated in the Western states, and a new variant, Stratus (XFG), becoming increasingly prevalent.
Global Trade Outlook Sees Modest Improvement Amid Tariff Uncertainty
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has adjusted its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025, now projecting a 0.9% increase. This marks an upward revision from its April forecast, which anticipated a 0.2% decline. The primary driver for this improved outlook is a significant "front-loading" of U.S. imports, as American companies rushed to stockpile products, parts, and raw materials in anticipation of new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
Despite this short-term boost, the WTO cautions that the "shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment, and supply chains," identifying uncertainty as a major disruptive force in the global trading environment. Looking further ahead, the WTO has lowered its projection for global goods trade growth in 2026 to 1.8%, down from a previous estimate of 2.5%, indicating that the long-term impact of heightened tariffs could dampen trade. While Asian economies are expected to remain a positive driver in 2025, North America is projected to negatively impact global trade growth in both 2025 and 2026.
Imposter Scams Devastate Older Americans' Finances
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has released alarming data revealing that imposter scams cost older Americans a substantial $700 million in 2024. This figure represents a dramatic 362% surge in losses since 2020, when reported losses for this demographic stood at $122 million. The impact has been particularly severe for those losing over $100,000, with these losses climbing more than 700% from $55 million in 2020 to $445 million in 2024.
Disturbingly, many victims reported that these scams led to the complete depletion of their life savings, including emptied bank accounts and cashed-out 401(k)s. Scammers frequently impersonate trusted figures, such as bank employees, tech support from companies like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT), or even government agencies like the Social Security Administration or the FTC itself, convincing victims to transfer funds for "safety." The FTC received 8,269 reports in 2024 from Americans aged 60 and older who lost at least $10,000, a significant increase from 1,790 reports in 2020. These figures likely understate the true extent of the damage, as older victims often hesitate to report fraud due to embarrassment or lack of awareness. The FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center also reported a broader rise in elder fraud, with $4.9 billion in losses from nearly 147,127 complaints in 2024, indicating that scams are becoming more sophisticated, potentially utilizing advanced techniques like AI voice cloning.
COVID-19 Cases See Uptick Across U.S., West Leads Surge
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports a notable increase in COVID-19 activity across the United States, with wastewater monitoring data showing a nationwide rise from "low" to "moderate" levels within a week. The Western U.S. is currently experiencing the highest levels of activity, with states such as Alaska, California, Colorado, Nevada, and Utah marked as "high" risk areas.
As of Tuesday, the CDC estimates that COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 45 states, an increase from 40 states the previous week. Emergency department visits for COVID-19 are also trending upwards across all age groups, showing a 19% increase compared to the prior week. A new variant, XFG, also known as "Stratus," is contributing to the current wave, emerging as the third-most common strain of the summer and accounting for up to 14% of cases by late June. Health experts note that these "summer bumps" in COVID-19 cases are a typical pattern, with the virus often exhibiting both winter and summer spikes. While deaths declined in the CDC's most recent reporting week, the rising indicators underscore the continued presence and evolution of the virus.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.