Key Takeaways
- A senior U.S. official confirmed that no final decision has been made on China tariffs, with President Trump expected to make the ultimate call on extending a tariff truce by the August 12 deadline.
- OCBC (OCBC) reported a robust H1 2025 with net income of S$3.70 billion, net interest income of S$4.63 billion, and a healthy Return on Equity (ROE) of 12.6%.
- Japan's jobless rate remained stable at 2.5% in June, aligning with estimates, although the jobs-to-applicant ratio slightly cooled to 1.22, indicating a modest softening in the labor market.
- Business leaders in the UK are more pessimistic about the economy than at any time since 2016, with expectations for growth at their weakest since November 2022.
A senior U.S. official has indicated that a final decision regarding tariffs on China is still pending, with President Donald Trump slated to make the ultimate determination. This comes as a crucial August 12 deadline approaches for a potential extension of the current tariff truce between the two economic powerhouses. While Chinese trade negotiators have suggested an agreement to extend the truce, U.S. officials have clarified that nothing is final until approved by President Trump, who retains discretion to adjust tariff rates based on circumstances.
The discussions have highlighted the U.S. aim to rebalance its trade relationship with China, citing China's significant trade surplus. The potential for a 10% tariff for countries with a U.S. trade surplus and a 15% tariff for nations with small trade deficits has been mentioned by a senior U.S. official. Furthermore, the White House has stated that President Trump intends to maintain a minimum global tariff rate of 10%, resisting earlier suggestions of a higher floor. Technical details concerning rules of origin for transshipment are still being finalized and are expected to be implemented in the coming weeks.
In corporate news, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) has released its H1 2025 earnings summary, showcasing a strong financial performance. The bank reported a net income of S$3.70 billion, with net interest income reaching S$4.63 billion. Total income for the first half stood at S$7.20 billion, and adjusted operating income was S$4.40 billion. Operating expenses were contained at S$2.80 billion, contributing to a healthy net interest margin (NIM) of 1.98% and a robust Return on Equity (ROE) of 12.6%. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.9%.
Meanwhile, Japan's labor market data for June shows a mixed picture. The jobless rate remained unchanged at 2.5%, which was in line with economists' estimates. However, the jobs-to-applicant ratio experienced a slight decline to 1.22 from 1.24 in May, falling short of the estimated 1.25. This suggests a modest cooling in the Japanese labor market.
Across the globe, sentiment among UK business chiefs has turned increasingly pessimistic, reaching levels not seen since 2016. Expectations for economic growth are now at their lowest point since November 2022, indicating a growing concern over the UK's economic trajectory. This gloom among business leaders highlights broader anxieties about the economic outlook in the United Kingdom.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.