Key Takeaways
- Germany and Italy's economies experienced a slight contraction in Q2 2025, with preliminary GDP figures showing a -0.1% decline quarter-over-quarter for both nations.
- India is targeting an October 2025 deadline to finalize a comprehensive trade agreement with the United States, amidst threats of 20-25% tariffs from the Trump administration.
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggests that negotiations to pause the Ukraine-Russia conflict could commence as early as winter 2025.
- A minor tsunami, with waves reaching 1.6 feet above normal tide levels, was reported in Arena Cove, California.
European Economic Performance Falters in Q2 2025
Preliminary data for the second quarter of 2025 indicates a slight economic contraction in two of Europe's major economies. Germany's seasonally adjusted GDP (Q/Q) for Q2 registered -0.1%, aligning with estimates but a notable decrease from the previous quarter's 0.4% growth. On a year-over-year basis, Germany's GDP (NSA) stood at 0.0%, while the working-day adjusted (WDA) figure showed a 0.4% increase.
Similarly, Italy's preliminary Q2 2025 GDP (Q/Q) also came in at -0.1%, falling short of the estimated 0.1% growth and down from the prior quarter's 0.3% expansion. The working-day adjusted (Y/Y) GDP for Italy was 0.4%. These figures suggest a challenging economic environment for the Eurozone, with potential implications for the Euro (EUR).
India Accelerates US Trade Deal Amid Tariff Threats
India is pushing to finalize a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement with the United States by October 2025. This comes as the Trump administration has threatened to impose tariffs of 20-25% on Indian exports if a deal is not reached. Indian officials are preparing for these potential tariffs as a temporary measure, with a U.S. delegation expected to visit India in mid-August to resume broader trade negotiations.
Bilateral goods trade between India and the U.S. reached approximately $129 billion in 2024, with India holding a trade surplus of nearly $46 billion. While India has offered tariff cuts on a wide range of goods and is working to ease non-tariff barriers, agriculture and dairy sectors remain "no-go" areas.
Signs of Potential Pause in Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has indicated that there are signs the Ukraine-Russia conflict might be paused soon, with negotiations potentially beginning in the winter of 2025. Tusk emphasized Poland's commitment to supporting Ukraine and resolving differences between Warsaw and Kyiv. This development comes amidst ongoing discussions about the role of international partners, including Turkey, in ensuring lasting peace and stability in the region.
Minor Tsunami Activity Reported in Arena Cove, California
A minor tsunami was reported in Arena Cove, California, with waves reaching 1.6 feet above normal tide levels. While the National Weather Service had previously issued and then canceled tsunami warnings after an earthquake off Northern California, this recent report indicates localized, albeit minor, tsunami activity. Tidal watch reports confirmed the elevated water levels.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.