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German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has issued a stark warning that a recession in Germany in 2025 "cannot be ruled out" if proposed tariffs materialize in August. Furthermore, Nagel indicated that the country's forecast GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026 could be "eaten up" by these tariffs, highlighting significant economic headwinds for Europe's largest economy. This comes as the German economy has faced persistent challenges, with tariffs and trade policy uncertainty dampening growth prospects.
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In contrast, the United States is expected to see a strong June retail sales report, according to leading financial institutions. Bank of America (BAC) anticipates the retail sales control group to rise by a robust 0.9%. Separately, Goldman Sachs (GS) projects a 0.4% increase for the core control group in June, underscoring continued strength in U.S. consumer spending. These forecasts point to a resilient consumer base despite broader economic uncertainties.
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On the energy front, U.S. Natural Gas Supply to Freeport LNG's Texas Export Facility is reportedly "nearly restoring," signaling the plant is returning to full operation. This development is crucial for global natural gas markets, as the Freeport LNG facility is a significant exporter of liquefied natural gas. The restoration of full capacity at the Texas plant helps stabilize supply chains and potentially impacts international gas prices.
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In geopolitical news, the European Union remains "steadfastly committed to the reunification of Cyprus." This commitment is fully aligned with UN Security Council resolutions and the foundational principles, values, and legislation of the EU. The EU strongly supports the efforts of the UN Secretary-General and his Personal Envoy to resume negotiations aimed at achieving a comprehensive settlement for the island.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.