Key Takeaways
- JP Morgan (JPM) warns oil prices could surge to $150/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists into mid-May, with a near-term squeeze targeting the $120-$130 range.
- EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas called for a massive scale-up of the Aspides naval mission, labeling Iran’s "bounty" demands for ship passage as an illegal "pay-to-pass" scheme.
- SpaceX is reportedly in talks with Saudi Arabia’s PIF for a $5 billion anchor stake ahead of a record-breaking 2026 IPO that could seek a $1.75 trillion valuation.
- OpenAI has acquired tech talk show TBPN and slashed ChatGPT Business pricing to $20/seat to consolidate its influence and market share in the enterprise AI sector.
Hormuz Crisis Drives Oil Toward Historic Highs
JP Morgan (JPM) issued a stark warning on Thursday, stating that global oil prices are at risk of topping $150 per barrel if the current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues into mid-May. The bank expects a near-term "squeeze" to push Brent crude into the $120-$130 range immediately, as the vital maritime chokepoint remains effectively closed to commercial traffic.
While analysts at JP Morgan (JPM) ultimately expect the disruption to resolve later this year, they project oil will remain firmly above $100/bbl through the second quarter of 2026. The current supply shock is being compared to the 1970s energy crisis, with nearly 20% of global oil flows currently impacted by the regional conflict.
EU Condemns Iranian "Bounty" Scheme
EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas delivered a sharp rebuke to Tehran, asserting that Iran cannot be allowed to charge countries a "bounty" to permit ships to pass through international waters. Kallas emphasized that international law does not recognize "pay-to-pass" schemes and urged member states to scale up the EU’s Aspides naval mission to protect trade.
The diplomatic situation remains fluid as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held discussions with his Iranian counterpart regarding the blockade. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has offered Kyiv’s assistance to international partners to help support security efforts in the region, highlighting the global stakes of the maritime standoff.
SpaceX Targets Massive $75 Billion IPO
SpaceX is reportedly in advanced talks with the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) for a $5 billion anchor stake in the company’s highly anticipated 2026 initial public offering. Sources indicate the investment would help prevent the dilution of the PIF’s existing stake, which currently sits just below 1%.
The rocket manufacturer, led by Elon Musk, has reportedly filed for its IPO confidentially and is seeking a valuation that could exceed $1.75 trillion. If successful, the offering could raise as much as $75 billion, dwarfing the previous record held by Saudi Aramco. Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), are said to be lining up for senior roles in the debut.
OpenAI Pivots to Media and Enterprise Growth
In a strategic move to control the narrative surrounding artificial intelligence, OpenAI has acquired the popular tech talk show TBPN. The program, which has featured industry titans like Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella, will continue to operate with editorial independence while supporting OpenAI’s marketing and communications efforts.
Simultaneously, OpenAI is aggressively pursuing enterprise market share by cutting the annual price of ChatGPT Business from $25 to $20 per seat. The company also introduced a new pay-as-you-go pricing model for Codex-only seats, allowing engineering teams to scale their use of AI coding tools without the burden of fixed monthly fees.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.