Key Takeaways
- Odds of a September Federal Reserve rate cut have surged back above 80% following weaker-than-anticipated U.S. job growth in July and significant downward revisions to May and June payrolls.
- Major oil producers Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) reported their lowest profits in four years for Q2 2025, while Boeing (BA) saw its price target hiked by Bank of America (BAC) to $260 after a strong earnings beat.
- Meta (META) plans a $2 billion asset sale to help offset its substantial AI infrastructure investments, which are projected to reach $66-$72 billion in 2025.
- Former President Donald Trump is exploring the possibility of issuing a "dividend" or "rebate" to citizens from tariff revenues, which have already generated over $100 billion in fiscal year 2025.
- China's green energy initiatives are accelerating, with renewables constituting 91.5% of new power capacity additions in the first half of 2025, and hopes are rising for a resumption of Japanese beef and seafood exports to China.
The financial landscape is abuzz with shifting monetary policy expectations, significant corporate earnings, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. The probability of a Federal Reserve (FED) rate cut in September has dramatically increased to over 80%, a sharp rise from earlier in the week when odds were below 50%. This shift comes after government data revealed much weaker U.S. job growth in July and a collective downward revision of 258,000 payrolls for May and June, signaling a softening labor market.
In corporate news, energy giants Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) announced their lowest quarterly profits in four years for Q2 2025. This decline is attributed to weaker oil and gas prices during the period. Conversely, Boeing (BA) delivered a strong earnings beat, leading Bank of America (BAC) to raise its price target for the aerospace company to $260 from $185 and upgrade its rating to "buy." Boeing reported a narrower adjusted loss of $1.24 per share on revenue that climbed 35% year-over-year to $22.75 billion, with commercial airplane deliveries rising to 150.
Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (META) is planning a $2 billion asset sale to help finance its aggressive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company anticipates spending between $66 billion and $72 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, marking a significant $30 billion increase from the previous year.
On the political front, former President Donald Trump has suggested the possibility of providing a "dividend" or "rebate" to U.S. citizens from the substantial revenues generated by tariffs. Fiscal year 2025 has already seen over $100 billion collected from tariffs, with $27 billion in June alone. A proposed bill by a GOP senator aims to provide at least $600 per adult and dependent child, totaling $2,400 for a family of four, from these tariff proceeds, with income-based phase-outs. Furthermore, Trump's public support for USD-pegged cryptocurrencies has spurred urgency among Asian regulators, including those in Hong Kong, to update their stablecoin rules and align with U.S. standards, especially after the signing of the GENIUS Act.
In global trade and energy, China's commitment to green energy is accelerating, with renewables accounting for a dominant 91.5% of all new power capacity additions in the first half of 2025. The country's green electricity trading volume surged 49.3% year-on-year to 154 billion kilowatt-hours. Additionally, there is renewed optimism for the resumption of Japanese beef and seafood exports to China, as China has completed a key step towards lifting its 24-year ban on Japanese beef and its 2023 ban on seafood.
Other notable developments include Blackstone (BX) completing the largest pound-denominated commercial mortgage deal since 2008, selling £1.5 billion ($2 billion) in bonds backed by UK holiday parks. In political donations, Elon Musk reportedly contributed $15 million in June to Trump's super PAC and various GOP groups, despite his earlier criticisms of a tax cut and spending bill. Lastly, Singapore has announced a 12% year-over-year increase in its defense budget for FY25, reaching S$23.4 billion ($18.2 billion).
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.