Key Takeaways
- Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has significantly adjusted its September Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for Basrah Medium crude, raising prices for Asia to +$2.15/barrel above Oman/Dubai average, while cutting prices for Europe to -$1.30/barrel below Dated Brent, and slightly increasing for the Americas to -$1.00/barrel below ASCI.
- A new US-brokered peace accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan, including the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" transit corridor, aims to resolve decades of conflict in the South Caucasus, though it faces skepticism and opposition from some Armenians and a threat from Iran.
- The ongoing conflict in Ukraine saw Russia claim to destroy 121 Ukrainian drones overnight, while Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian oil refineries in Saratov, causing damage and a fatality; simultaneously, European leaders reiterated that any peace talks must include Kyiv ahead of a planned Trump-Putin summit.
- Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, made his second visit to the United States in less than three months, signaling strengthening bilateral defense and security ties between the two nations.
Oil Market Dynamics: Iraq's September OSP Adjustments
Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has set its Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for September-loading Basrah Medium crude, revealing varied pricing strategies across key global markets. For Asian buyers, the OSP for Basrah Medium was set at $2.15/barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, a notable increase reflecting robust demand in the region. Conversely, European customers will see Basrah Medium priced at a discount of $1.30/barrel below Dated Brent, a reduction that suggests a more competitive environment in the European market. Meanwhile, for North and South America, the OSP was set at a discount of $1.00/barrel below the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI). These adjustments by Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, are closely watched by market participants and major energy companies such as ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Shell (SHEL), as they influence global crude flows and pricing benchmarks.
Geopolitical Shifts in the South Caucasus: Armenia-Azerbaijan Accord
A new peace accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by the United States and signed at the White House on August 8, 2025, aims to put an end to decades of hostility. A central component of the agreement is the establishment of the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP), a transit corridor designed to connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory. The United States has secured exclusive development rights for this strategic and resource-rich corridor, a move a White House official stated would benefit the U.S. as a "tremendous strategic commercial partner" while identifying China, Russia, and Iran as "losers" in the shifting regional influence.
Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, the accord has been met with mixed reactions in Armenia, where citizens are caught between cautious hope and deep distrust. Some Armenians view the agreement as a necessary step given the country's limited military strength and lack of strong allies, while others vehemently oppose it, particularly the proposed transit zone, likening it to a loss of sovereignty. Adding to the complexity, Iran has issued threats to block the corridor, raising concerns about its security and implementation. Russia, a traditional mediator and ally of Armenia, has welcomed the deal, expressing hope for stability in the volatile South Caucasus region.
Eastern European Front: Drone Warfare and Peace Dialogue
The conflict in Ukraine continues with intense drone activity. Russia's Ministry of Defense claimed its air defense units intercepted 121 Ukrainian drones overnight on August 10, including eight over the Saratov region. Concurrently, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck oil refineries in Russia's Saratov region, igniting fires and damaging an industrial enterprise, resulting in one fatality. On the Ukrainian side, the Air Force reported that Russia launched 100 drones of various types overnight, with 70 being intercepted, but 30 hitting targets across 12 locations in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. Russian drone attacks also led to casualties in Ukraine, killing two and injuring 16 in Kherson, and two more in Zaporizhzhia.
Amidst the ongoing hostilities, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has affirmed Ukraine's full support for a joint peace statement issued by European leaders. Leaders from the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Finland, and the European Commission emphasized that "the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine" and that any negotiations must occur within the context of a ceasefire or reduction of hostilities. This unified European stance comes ahead of a planned summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, where the prospect of "some swapping of territories" has been floated, with reports suggesting a White House effort to encourage European acceptance of Russia retaining the Donbas region and Crimea.
Strengthening Bilateral Ties: Pakistan and the U.S.
Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, is currently on an official visit to the United States, marking his second trip in less than three months. This visit underscores a concerted effort to strengthen bilateral defense and security ties between Islamabad and Washington, following a period of strained relations. During his engagements, Field Marshal Munir has held high-level interactions with senior political and military leadership, including attending retirement and change of command ceremonies at the US Central Command (CENTCOM), where he praised outgoing Commander General Michael E. Kurilla and extended best wishes to Admiral Brad Cooper. He also discussed matters of mutual professional interest with Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine. The visit signals a growing closeness between the two nations, with potential implications for defense cooperation and military aid, which could be relevant for defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon Technologies (RTX).
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.