Key Takeaways
- Oil prices have recently shown signs of stability, despite earlier declines to two-month lows, as markets anticipate a crucial summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- The European Commission has initiated a public consultation on the guidelines for its Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), inviting stakeholder feedback until September 12, 2025.
- The FSR, which became effective in July 2023, aims to ensure a level playing field within the EU's internal market by addressing distortions caused by non-EU government subsidies.
- The upcoming Trump-Putin summit, expected around August 15, is closely watched for potential diplomatic resolutions to the Ukraine conflict, which could significantly impact global energy markets.
Oil markets are experiencing a period of relative calm amidst quiet summer trading, with prices stabilizing as attention turns to an anticipated summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) previously hit eight-week lows, they have recently held steady. The upcoming meeting, expected in the coming days and potentially on August 15 in Alaska, is seen as a pivotal moment for a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Despite the recent stability, crude oil prices had declined by 5% in the week prior to August 11, reaching two-month lows for both WTI and Brent. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, with concerns that any US tariffs could slow down crude oil demand. Analysts are closely monitoring the summit for statements that could hint at a peace deal, which might lead to further drops in oil prices. President Trump has indicated that both Ukraine and Russia may need to cede territory to end the more than three-year-long war.
Concurrently, the European Union is advancing its efforts to ensure fair competition within its internal market. The European Commission launched a public consultation on the draft guidelines for its Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) on July 17, 2025, with a deadline for submissions set for September 12, 2025. The FSR, which came into force on July 13, 2023, empowers the Commission to address market distortions caused by foreign subsidies, thereby creating a more equitable environment for all companies.
The regulation aims to close a previous regulatory gap where subsidies granted by non-EU governments went unchecked, unlike those from EU Member States which are subject to stringent State aid rules. The draft guidelines provide crucial clarity on how the Commission determines if a foreign subsidy distorts competition, applies a "balancing test" to weigh positive and negative effects, and exercises its power to review concentrations or public procurement bids, even those below notification thresholds. This review process, which has seen over 200 M&A deals and 500 public procurement bids require FSR clearance in the past two years, is expected to enhance the predictability and transparency of FSR enforcement, with final guidelines anticipated by January 2026.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.