As Tuesday, August 12, 2025, dawns, the U.S. stock market is poised for a dynamic trading session, with premarket activity indicating a cautious optimism. Investors are keenly awaiting the release of crucial inflation data, while positive developments on the U.S.-China trade front are providing a supportive backdrop. The interplay of these factors is shaping premarket futures movements and setting the stage for the day's trading.
Premarket Pulse & Futures
U.S. stock index futures are largely showing modest gains this morning, signaling a slightly positive open for the major benchmarks. S&P 500 futures (SPX) are up approximately 0.1% to 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) are also trending higher by about 0.1% to 0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (INDU) are reflecting similar sentiment, rising between 0.12% and 0.2% in premarket trading. This upward tilt in futures comes as market participants brace for key economic data and digest recent geopolitical news.
The primary catalyst for today's premarket movements is the anticipation surrounding the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. This inflation gauge is a critical determinant for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Adding to the positive sentiment is the confirmed extension of the U.S.-China trade truce for another 90 days. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to this effect, providing a temporary reprieve from escalating tariff concerns. China's Commerce Ministry has also indicated its commitment to reducing non-tariff barriers, further easing trade tensions.
Major Market Indexes: A Look Back and Ahead
Yesterday's trading session saw the major U.S. indexes close in negative territory, reflecting investor caution ahead of today's inflation report and ongoing trade uncertainties. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by 0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 0.45%, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) dropped 0.30%. This slight pullback underscores the market's sensitivity to economic indicators and trade policy. Today's premarket gains in futures suggest a potential rebound, but the actual market open and reaction to the CPI data will be crucial in determining the day's overall direction.
Key Economic Data & Federal Reserve Outlook
All eyes are on the July CPI report, set to be released this morning. Economists are forecasting a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the headline CPI and a 2.8% year-over-year rise. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to climb 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. These figures will be closely scrutinized for signs of persistent inflationary pressures, which could influence the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates.
Speaking of monetary policy, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has reiterated her projection for three interest rate cuts in 2025. Bowman, who dissented at the Fed's July meeting in favor of a rate cut, cited increasing fragility in labor market conditions as a key reason for her stance. The market appears to be largely aligned with this view, with data from CME's FedWatch Tool indicating an almost 87% probability of an interest rate cut in September. Beyond today's CPI, other important economic data releases in August include the second estimate of Q2 2025 Gross Domestic Product and Corporate Profits on August 28, and July Personal Income and Outlays on August 29. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data for July are also slated for release later this week, on August 14 and 15, respectively.
Corporate Headlines & Stock Movers
Several companies are making headlines this morning, with significant news impacting their premarket performance:
- Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): These chipmakers remain in focus following President Trump's confirmation that the U.S. government will receive a 15% revenue share from their chip sales to China. This development comes amidst reports that China is urging local companies to avoid using Nvidia's H20 processors, which could complicate the company's efforts to recover lost revenue in the region.
- Under Armour (UAA): Shares of the sportswear retailer are up nearly 2% in premarket trading. This modest relief rally follows the company's recent announcement of an expected worsening sales decline in the current quarter and a projected $100 million in tariff-related costs for the year.
- Entero Therapeutics (ENTO): The stock has plunged 13.84% in pre-market trading. This significant drop is attributed to a substantial short interest in the company, with 14.61% of its float being sold short. Despite this, analysts maintain an "Outperform" consensus with an optimistic one-year price target of $36.00.
- Sinclair Inc (SBGI): Shares of the U.S. TV station owner surged over 28% in extended trading after the company announced it is reviewing its business for potential mergers or a ventures unit spinoff.
- HUYA Inc. (HUYA): The leading game-related entertainment provider announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. Total net revenues increased to RMB1,567.1 million (US$218.8 million) from RMB1,541.6 million year-over-year. However, the company reported a net loss attributable to HUYA Inc. of RMB5.5 million (US$0.8 million), compared to a net income of RMB29.6 million in the same period last year.
- Tecan Group (TECN): The Swiss life sciences company reported solid financial results for the first half of 2025, reaffirming its full-year outlook. While sales in Swiss francs saw a decrease, the Life Sciences Business segment is showing a return to growth.
Today's earnings calendar is also busy with several companies reporting before and after the bell. Notable companies expected to release their quarterly results include H&R Block (HRB), Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN), Paysafe (PSFE), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Cardinal Health (CAH).
As the market prepares for the opening bell, investors will be closely monitoring the CPI data for its impact on interest rate expectations and watching how the extended U.S.-China trade truce continues to influence sentiment across various sectors, particularly technology. The day promises to be eventful as these key drivers unfold.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.