U.S. stock futures are largely pointing lower this Monday, December 29, 2025, as investors kick off the final, holiday-shortened trading week of the year with a cautious tone. After a robust 2025 that saw major indexes reach fresh record highs, premarket activity suggests a slight pullback, particularly in the tech sector, as traders engage in some profit-taking. The week ahead is relatively light on economic data but will feature the keenly anticipated minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, which could offer further insights into the central bank's policy outlook for 2026.
Premarket Trading and Futures Movements
As of early Monday, futures tied to the S&P 500 Index were down approximately 0.13% to 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures showed a more pronounced decline of around 0.18% to 0.5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, however, were relatively flat, showing a slight dip of 0.11% or even a marginal gain of 0.01% in some readings. This mixed performance in futures follows Friday's session, where the S&P 500 (SPX) hit an intraday high of 6,945.77 before closing nearly flat, snapping a five-session winning streak for all three major indexes. The overall market sentiment for 2025 has remained positive, fueled by a broad rise in metals, steady demand for AI chip stocks, and stable economic data.
The "Santa Claus rally" period is currently underway, a seasonal phenomenon where stocks tend to rise in the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Despite this historical trend, today's premarket dip indicates some hesitation as the year draws to a close.
Major Market Indexes: A Look Back at 2025
The year 2025 has been exceptionally strong for U.S. equity markets. The S&P 500 has climbed an impressive 17.7% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 14.5%, marking its best annual performance since 2021. Leading the charge has been the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), which has surged 22.2% so far this year. These substantial gains have been largely attributed to investor optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) advancements and the deregulatory policies of the current administration.
Upcoming Market Events
The economic calendar for this final week of 2025 is relatively light, but one significant event stands out: the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting on Wednesday. These minutes will be closely scrutinized by investors for any further clues regarding the Fed's monetary policy trajectory, particularly concerning potential interest rate cuts in 2026. The Fed had cut interest rates for a third straight time in early December, though the decision was not unanimous, and market expectations currently lean towards two 0.25% rate cuts next year, with the first potentially arriving as early as March.
Today, investors will be monitoring the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, which is expected to show an improvement from November's figures, potentially signaling a resilient U.S. manufacturing sector. Additionally, the Pending Home Sales data is also slated for release this morning.
On the corporate earnings front, the week is quiet, with no major companies scheduled to report. However, a few smaller companies are on the calendar for today, including iHuman (IH) and OBOOK Holdings (OWLS), both expected to release their quarterly results. Immersion Corp (IMMR) and RCI Hospitality (RICK) are also listed as having earnings today. Baker Hughes (BKR) has announced its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release for January 25, 2026.
Major Stock News and Developments
Individual company news is driving some of the premarket movements today:
- Nvidia (NVDA) shares are experiencing a pullback of around 1.1% to 1.3% in premarket trading. This comes despite news that the AI chip giant has agreed to license its AI chip technology from startup Groq. Furthermore, Nvidia recently took a significant $5 billion stake in Intel (INTC) as part of a September agreement, a move seen as a financial lifeline for Intel. Notably, SoftBank had sold its complete stake in Nvidia last month. Adding to the intrigue, investor Michael Burry, known for "The Big Short," is reportedly shorting Nvidia and Palantir (PLTR).
- Tesla (TSLA) stock is also down in premarket, retreating approximately 1.3% to 1.4% after hitting a record high last week.
- DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) is a standout gainer in premarket, surging over 10% following a Bloomberg report that Japanese conglomerate SoftBank is nearing a deal to acquire the data-center investment firm.
- Target Corporation (TGT) saw its shares rise 3.1% after a Financial Times report indicated that hedge fund Toms Capital Investment Management had built a significant stake in the retailer.
- Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) shares climbed 6.5% after the company reassured investors that a recent cyber issue was resolved and had minimal impact.
- American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) shares fell 1.5% as concerns over potential flight disruptions due to a winter storm weighed on the airline sector.
- Oracle (ORCL) shares are also trading lower in premarket.
In the broader commodities market, precious metals are seeing a retreat. Gold futures declined around 1.6% to 1.7% to approximately $4,475-$4,480 an ounce, after setting a new all-time high of nearly $4,585 on Friday. Silver futures also fell significantly, dropping over 2.5% to 3% to around $74.65-$75.25 an ounce, after touching a record above $80-$82.65 earlier Monday. This pullback follows a powerful rally driven by safe-haven demand, inflation hedging, and speculative trades. Conversely, WTI crude oil futures are trending higher, surging around 2.5% to $58.20 per barrel amid ongoing U.S.-Venezuela tensions. Brent crude also advanced, rising 2.1% to $61.94 a barrel.
The cryptocurrency market also saw some movement, with Bitcoin trading around $87,300, down from an overnight high of roughly $90,300. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped slightly to 4.11%-4.12% from Friday's close.
As the year winds down, investors are carefully balancing the strong performance of 2025 with an eye on potential shifts in monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical developments as they position their portfolios for the new year.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.