Market Indexes Show Modest Gains in Shortened Trading Session
The major U.S. stock indexes are showing modest gains in early trading on Thursday, July 3rd, 2025, as markets today prepare for an early close ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The S&P 500 is up 0.03% to 6,276.75, building on yesterday’s record close of 6,227.42. The Nasdaq Composite has added 0.03% to reach 22,850.25, extending its record-setting performance from Wednesday when it closed at 20,393.13. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.06% to 44,805.00, still about 1.3% away from its all-time high recorded in December 2024.
Trading volume is expected to be lighter than usual as investors prepare for the July 4th holiday. U.S. stock markets will close early today at 1 p.m. ET and remain closed tomorrow for Independence Day, reopening for regular trading on Monday, July 7th.
Investors Await Critical June Jobs Report
Market participants are cautiously positioning themselves ahead of the June jobs report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET today. This highly anticipated economic data point has taken on added significance following Wednesday’s surprisingly weak ADP private payrolls report, which showed U.S. private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June – the first month of job losses in the private sector in over two years.
The ADP report badly missed economists’ expectations of around 98,000 jobs added and has intensified speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. According to CME data, while most Fed watchers still do not expect a rate cut in July, almost all are betting on at least one rate cut by September, with over 20% now pricing in two cuts by that meeting.
“Today’s jobs report could be the deciding factor for the Fed’s September meeting,” said market analyst Thomas Reynolds. “A confirmation of labor market weakness would significantly increase pressure for multiple rate cuts this year.”
Trade Deals and Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” in Focus
Wednesday’s market news today was dominated by President Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam, which helped lift investor sentiment. The deal boosted several stocks with significant manufacturing exposure in Vietnam, including Nike (NKE), which saw its shares rise 4.1%.
Meanwhile, Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” continues to face challenges in Congress after clearing the Senate thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. The bill, which includes significant tax cuts and spending reductions, is now headed to the House, where split Republican factions are threatening to delay a potential final vote despite Trump’s push to sign it by July 4th.
The bill’s provision to slash federal spending on Medicaid and Affordable Care Act marketplaces by about $1 trillion has already impacted healthcare stocks. On Wednesday, UnitedHealth (UNH) fell nearly 3%, CVS Health (CVS) dropped over 2%, Cigna (CI) declined 3%, and Elevance Health (ELV) plummeted almost 9%.
Premarket Movers: Tech and Energy Stocks Lead
Among the notable premarket movers today, Global Interactive Technologies (GITS) is surging 211.04% to $5.07 on heavy volume of over 10 million shares. Other significant gainers include Theratechnologies (THTX) up 33.05%, FiEE (MINM) rising 26.97%, and MIRA Pharmaceuticals (MIRA) climbing 23.39%.
On the downside, Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) is falling 24.30% to $1.62, while GIBO Holdings (GIBO) is down 19.65% to $0.10.
Among major tech stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2.58% to $157.25 in premarket trading, continuing its strong performance as the AI boom shows no signs of slowing. Tesla (TSLA) is gaining 4.97% to $315.65 after the company reported better-than-expected global vehicle production in the second quarter, despite sales challenges. Apple (AAPL) is seeing mixed trading, with some analysts questioning whether the stock has become “dead money” due to slowing innovation and challenges in the Chinese market.
Sector Performance and Market Trends
Technology stocks continue to lead the stock market today, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) having advanced 1.1% on Wednesday. Energy stocks are also showing strength, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) up 1.7% in the previous session, while Materials stocks gained 1.5% as represented by the Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB).
The first half of 2025 has been marked by significant volatility despite the S&P 500’s more than 6% gain year-to-date. Research from Exhibit A co-founder Matt Cerminaro shows that both the Technology and Communication Services sectors fell more than 22% from their most recent highs at some point this year before recovering to become among the best performers.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge,” is up slightly by 1.02% to 16.81, indicating some caution among investors ahead of the jobs report and holiday weekend.
Upcoming Economic Data and Earnings Calendar
Beyond today’s crucial jobs report, investors are looking ahead to a busy economic calendar in July. Key upcoming releases include the Consumer Price Index for June on July 15th, the Producer Price Index on July 16th, and the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes on July 17th. The Employment Cost Index for the second quarter will be released on July 31st.
The second-quarter earnings season is set to begin in earnest during the second full week of July, led by major banking institutions including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC). Analysts at FactSet estimate a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 5.0% for S&P 500 companies, which would mark the lowest earnings growth reported by the index since Q4 2023.
Market Outlook
As we move into the second half of 2025, market news today reflects both optimism and caution. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to set new records, but concerns about economic growth, particularly in the labor market, are tempering enthusiasm.
“We’re seeing a market that’s increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts, which is supporting valuations despite slowing earnings growth,” said economist Maria Sanchez. “The question now is whether the economy can achieve a soft landing or if we’re heading for a more significant slowdown.”
With major indexes near all-time highs, investors will be closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports to justify current valuations. The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, continues to drive market performance, but rotation into other sectors may be necessary for the rally to broaden and sustain itself through the remainder of 2025.
As trading winds down for the holiday weekend, market participants will have time to digest today’s jobs report and position themselves for what promises to be an eventful second half of the year in the markets today.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.