Major Indexes Show Mixed Performance at Market Open
At the market open today, Thursday, July 3rd, 2025, U.S. stock markets showed mixed performance as investors digested the latest economic data and corporate news. The S&P 500 edged up 0.5% to 6,227.42, marking a new record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% to 20,393.13, also reaching a fresh all-time high.
Trading volume is expected to be lighter than usual today as markets will close early at 1 p.m. ET for the Independence Day holiday and remain shuttered on Friday, July 4th.
Jobs Report Surprises Market
This morning’s jobs report showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, significantly exceeding economists’ expectations of 106,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1%, providing a positive signal about the resilience of the U.S. labor market.
This comes after yesterday’s surprising ADP private payrolls report, which showed an unexpected contraction of 33,000 jobs in June, compared to the consensus estimate of a gain of 100,000. The May payrolls figure was also revised downward to 29,000 from the previously reported 37,000.
The conflicting data between the government’s jobs report and ADP’s private sector report has created some uncertainty in the markets today, though investors appear to be focusing more on the stronger official numbers.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up
Recent signs of softening in the labor market have given investors renewed confidence that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could come soon. The cooling labor market strengthens the case for monetary easing, which would be a positive catalyst for stocks.
Adding to the rate cut speculation is President Trump’s ongoing feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In a social media post late Wednesday, Trump said Powell “should resign immediately,” intensifying an already heated White House pressure campaign.
Market participants are closely watching these developments as they could significantly impact market direction in the coming months.
Trade Developments in Focus as Deadline Approaches
Investors are keeping a close eye on trade developments as the July 9 deadline for the resumption of sweeping tariffs approaches. The U.S.-Vietnam trade deal announced yesterday has boosted market sentiment, with Vietnamese goods now subject to 20% U.S. tariffs instead of the previously threatened 46%.
Vietnam also agreed that a 40% tariff rate will be levied if goods originated in another country and were transferred to Vietnam for final shipment to the United States, addressing concerns about tariff circumvention.
President Trump has expressed optimism that a trade deal between the United States and India could be signed before the July 9 deadline. India was subject to a 40% tariff on President Trump’s reciprocal tariff chart.
In a positive development for U.S.-China relations, the U.S. has lifted curbs on exports of chip design software to China, signaling a potential thaw in trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Shares of leading U.S. providers of the software, Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), jumped in premarket trading.
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Nears Final Vote
President Trump’s massive tax and spending bill is nearing a final vote after clearing a key House procedural vote. House Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed confidence in getting the legislation passed by Friday, July 4th, which is Trump’s deadline.
The bill narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday with a 51-50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote after several Republican Senators voted against the bill, defying party lines.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has projected that the bill will add more than $3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability given the current $36.2 trillion federal deficit.
Major Stock Movers
Tesla (TSLA) shares surged nearly 5% to $315.65 at the market open after the company reported total production of 410,244 vehicles during the second quarter, exceeding estimates of just over 400,000. Deliveries came in at 384,122 during the period, also above analysts’ expectations of 387,180.
Apple (AAPL) continued its upward momentum, rising about 2% to around $211.50, extending its winning streak to four sessions.
Nvidia (NVDA) shares climbed 2.58% to $157.25 as investors continue to bet on the company’s dominance in AI hardware, particularly with its upcoming Blackwell chips.
In the healthcare sector, Centene Corporation (CNC) plummeted 40.37% to $33.78 after pulling its full-year earnings forecast.
Nike (NKE) was a major gainer among Dow components, rising 4.1% following the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal, which is expected to benefit the sports retail giant’s supply chain operations.
Sector Performance
Seven out of 11 broad sectors of the S&P 500 ended in positive territory yesterday, while four finished in negative territory. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK), the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), and the Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) were the top performers, advancing 1.1%, 1.7%, and 1.5%, respectively. On the downside, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) fell 1%.
Today at the market open, technology stocks continued to lead the way, with semiconductor and AI-related companies showing particular strength. The healthcare sector remained under pressure following Centene’s disappointing announcement.
Looking Ahead: Market Events to Watch
With markets closing early today and remaining closed tomorrow for Independence Day, investors are looking ahead to several key events that could impact trading next week:
1. The July 9 deadline for trade deals remains the most significant near-term catalyst, with potential for market volatility if agreements aren’t reached with major trading partners.
2. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released today, will provide insights into economic conditions across the country and could influence rate cut expectations.
3. The final vote on President Trump’s tax and spending bill, expected by tomorrow, could have significant implications for fiscal policy and market sentiment.
4. Earnings season will begin in earnest next week, with major financial institutions typically among the first to report.
As markets today prepare for the holiday break, traders are balancing positive economic data against geopolitical uncertainties and fiscal concerns, creating a mixed but generally optimistic market environment at the opening bell.
Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.