In a world craving predictability, one figure consistently delivers the opposite, much to the stock market’s bewildered amusement. Donald J. Trump, with his penchant for grand pronouncements and a negotiating style that redefines “unorthodox,” continues to be the financial world’s most captivating, if not confounding, disruptor. The latest round of headlines confirms it: whether it’s a “great” trade deal involving new tariffs or a casual threat to slap duties on entire industries, the market reacts, often with a shrug, sometimes with a surge, and occasionally with a collective gasp. It’s a high-stakes game of “will he or won’t he,” played out daily on trading screens worldwide.
The “Great” Indonesia Deal: A Tariff by Any Other Name
Fresh off the digital presses of Truth Social, President Trump unveiled what he hailed as a “great” trade deal with Indonesia. The terms, as relayed by the President himself, are a masterclass in his unique brand of diplomacy: Indonesia will face a 19% tariff on its exports to the United States, while American goods will enjoy “full access” and enter the Southeast Asian nation “tariff-free.” One might ponder the definition of a “trade deal” where one party gets hit with a new levy, but then again, this is the Trump playbook in action. Indonesia, for its part, has committed to purchasing over $19 billion in American products, including a significant order of 50 Boeing jets. Boeing shares, which closed down 0.22% on Tuesday, July 15, at $230.00, were up slightly on Wednesday, July 16, trading at $230.57 (+0.25%). This “deal” replaces a previously threatened 32% tariff on Indonesian goods, so perhaps it’s all about perspective. Indonesia’s central bank even eased its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% today, July 16, citing a “weakening global economic outlook” and the need for stimulus, though it notably avoided direct reference to the trade deal in its statement.
Tariffs, Tariffs Everywhere: A Global Game of Whac-A-Mole
Beyond Indonesia, the tariff threats are flying faster than a tweet from Mar-a-Lago. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are firmly in the crosshairs, with Trump signaling that levies could hit as soon as August 1. This has sent ripples, though perhaps not the tidal waves of yesteryear, through various sectors. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), a Dow component, saw its shares jump more than 6% on Wednesday, July 16, pacing S&P 500 and Dow advancers after reporting better-than-expected results and slashing its tariff cost estimate for 2025 by half, to approximately $200 million. This suggests that while the threats are real, companies are either adapting or the market is becoming “desensitized” to the constant tariff chatter.
However, not all news is good news for the chip sector. ASML Holding (ASML), a Dutch semiconductor-gear manufacturer, saw its shares tumble over 9% on Wednesday, leading Nasdaq 100 decliners, after it couldn’t guarantee growth in 2026 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, specifically citing Trump’s tariffs. This highlights the very real, tangible impact that policy uncertainty can have on global supply chains and investment decisions. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA), the AI chip behemoth, continues its own curious dance. Its stock soared 4.7% in the past week, hitting an all-time high above $172, after the company announced it would restart sales of its H20 AI chip in China, a move that seems to contradict the broader chip tariff threats. Apparently, some chips are more equal than others when it comes to trade policy.
The European Union, long a target of Trump’s trade ire, is reportedly “growing weary” of the flip-flopping and is planning retaliatory actions against potential new tariffs. And then there’s Russia. Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on any country doing business with Russia if a Ukraine peace deal isn’t reached within 50 days. Despite this, the Russian stock market appeared “untroubled,” rising 2.7% on Monday, July 14, and another 1% on Tuesday morning, July 15, with the ruble recovering against the dollar. It seems some nations have developed a robust immune system to the tariff-induced jitters.
The Truth, According to Social Media
Much of this market-moving rhetoric originates not from official press conferences or detailed policy papers, but from the digital pulpit of Truth Social. President Trump’s preferred platform serves as a direct conduit for his announcements, whether it’s a “tremendous Bill to Make America the UNDISPUTED, NUMBER ONE LEADER” in crypto or urging Republicans to support the “GENIUS Act” for stablecoin regulation. This direct-to-investor communication style means market participants are often reacting to posts rather than traditional policy rollouts, adding an extra layer of digital volatility to the mix.
The Market’s Muddled Message
So, how are the major indices faring amidst this whirlwind of tariffs, deals, and presidential pronouncements? On Wednesday, July 16, the major U.S. stock indices showed a mixed picture. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose slightly, gaining 88 points (+0.3%), recovering some of Tuesday’s 1% slide. The S&P 500 (SPX) was up 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) slipped 0.1%, after posting a new all-time closing high on Tuesday. This mixed performance comes as “big banks lift Wall Street” following better-than-expected earnings reports from financial giants like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. However, inflation continues to tick up, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to an annual rate of 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% in May, and economists suggesting that Trump’s tariffs are contributing to these higher prices. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed no month-over-month increase in June, easing some short-term inflation fears.
Adding another layer to the economic narrative, President Trump announced $92 billion in energy and AI investments for Pennsylvania, with companies like Google committing $25 billion to build AI-ready data centers. This focus on domestic investment and technological leadership provides a counter-narrative to the trade tensions, suggesting a multi-pronged approach to economic policy.
Conclusion: The Only Constant is Change (and Tariffs)
In essence, the “Trump effect” on stock markets remains a fascinating study in controlled chaos. The market, like a seasoned poker player, seems to be calling some bluffs while reacting cautiously to others. The constant stream of tariff threats, often followed by “deals” that still involve tariffs, creates a unique environment where volatility is the norm and analysts are left deciphering the true intent behind every pronouncement. While some sectors, like big banks and select tech giants, find ways to thrive or at least mitigate the impact, the broader market navigates a landscape where policy flip-flops are not just a possibility, but a predictable feature. It’s a reminder that in the world of Trump and trade, the only constant is change, usually delivered with a flourish, and often, with a tariff.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.