Ah, the sweet, predictable chaos of a new administration. Or, in the case of former President Donald Trump’s second act, the familiar, yet endlessly entertaining, spectacle of economic policy by tweet (or Truth Social, as the case may be). Just when you thought the markets had developed an immunity, a new round of tariff pronouncements sends them into a delightful, if somewhat bewildering, dance. It’s less about fundamental economics and more about anticipating the next plot twist in what has become Wall Street’s longest-running reality show.
The Tariff Tantrum: A Daily Spectacle
The latest installment, fresh off the presses this July 20, 2025, features a renewed commitment to the “America First” trade doctrine, delivered with all the subtlety of a bull in a china shop – which, ironically, might soon be subject to a new tariff. News broke that a trade deal with the European Union is now “in jeopardy,” with the U.S. reportedly seeking to impose a “virtually universal tariff” on goods exceeding 10%. [Bloomberg Google Alert] Not to be outdone, a 50% tariff on copper imports was also announced, a figure that apparently surprised even seasoned analysts who had braced for a mere 25%.
The immediate market reaction to this copper bombshell was, predictably, anything but muted. COMEX copper futures, perhaps in a fit of patriotic fervor or sheer panic, soared to a record $5.9535 per pound on July 9, marking an intraday gain of nearly 17%. By July 18, while slightly off its peak, copper futures were still trading at $5.55 per pound, up 1.42% from the previous day and an impressive 15.48% over the past month. Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange, clearly not invited to the American party, saw its copper prices dip more than 4% on the same announcement. It’s almost as if global trade is, well, global. Imagine that.
The broader market on Friday, July 20, offered a mixed bag of emotions, much like a teenager trying to decide on weekend plans. U.S. stocks ended mixed, with the S&P 500 finishing flat, a testament to its remarkable ability to absorb repeated blows. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, ever the overachiever, even managed to inch up by less than 0.1%, somehow reaching another record high. One might conclude that tech companies, increasingly insulated by their digital domains, are simply too busy innovating to care about old-fashioned trade wars. Or perhaps, as some analysts suggest, the market is simply experiencing a “waning sensitivity to tariff news,” a polite way of saying investors are numb.
However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, representing the more traditional, tariff-vulnerable sectors, wasn’t so lucky. It dropped 142 points, or 0.3%, dragged down by familiar names like American Express and 3M. American Express (AXP) shares, for instance, saw a 2.2% decline, while 3M (MMM) shares declined over 3% on the day. It seems even the most diversified conglomerates can’t escape the gravitational pull of a presidential proclamation. Just a few days prior, on July 14, the Dow had managed a modest 0.2% rise, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% and Nasdaq 0.3%, despite Trump announcing 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU. The market’s ability to swing from shrugs to shudders within days is truly a marvel of modern finance.
Corporate Conundrums and Contradictions
The corporate world, meanwhile, continues its delicate dance of managing expectations versus reality. Companies like 3M, which initially braced for an $850 million annualized impact from tariffs, are now “dodging” the worst, with the estimated net hit to 2025 profit reduced to a mere 10 cents per share from an earlier 20 to 40 cents. This, of course, comes after the U.S. and China reportedly reached a “trade truce” in June. It’s almost as if the tariffs are less about long-term policy and more about creating dramatic quarterly earnings calls.
Analysts, bless their hearts, are doing their best to make sense of it all. Goldman Sachs economists, ever the optimists, assume companies will pass on 70% of tariff costs to consumers. Deutsche Bank, however, is a bit more cynical, estimating that tariffs will “ding” S&P 500 earnings by about 2 percentage points in Q2, with the “hit” likely to increase in the second half of the year. J.P. Morgan Global Research, not to be outdone, warns that heightened trade policy uncertainty could weigh on capital spending and reduce global GDP by 1%. So, depending on who you ask, tariffs are either a minor inconvenience, a significant drag, or a complete mystery. The only consensus seems to be that uncertainty is the new certainty.
Even the tech darlings, usually immune to such earthly concerns, are not entirely spared. While the Nasdaq generally holds up, individual giants like Apple (AAPL) dropped about 1% on July 14, and Nvidia (NVDA) declined 0.5% on the same day. Netflix (NFLX), fresh off its earnings report, tumbled 5% on July 19/20. Conversely, Tesla (TSLA) climbed about 1% on July 14, though it has seen significant declines over the past six months. It’s a testament to the market’s schizophrenic nature: one day, a company is a tariff victim; the next, it’s a tariff survivor, all depending on the latest presidential pronouncement.
The Volatility Vaudeville
For those who enjoy a good roller coaster, the market under Trump’s influence has been a thrill ride. The VIX volatility index, affectionately known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” surged an alarming 66.6% to 25 during the first four months of his second term, even spiking briefly beyond 52 points – a record in recent years. It’s almost as if investors are constantly on the edge of their seats, popcorn in hand, waiting for the next dramatic announcement. By late July, the fear index had settled around 16.4, suggesting that perhaps, just perhaps, the market is getting used to the theatrics.
Currency markets, too, have been part of the show. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against major global currencies, fell 10% to around 98.50 in the first six months of Trump’s second term. Meanwhile, the euro, perhaps enjoying the dollar’s woes, surged approximately 13% against the greenback, settling at $1.16 compared to $1.04 six months earlier. Commodities, ever the bellwethers of global sentiment, have also joined the fray. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, surged a remarkable 24% to $3,350 per ounce, even hitting a historic peak of $3,500 in late April, reflecting mounting fears about global economic turmoil. Brent crude, on the other hand, took a hit, falling approximately 14.3% to $68.60 per barrel, with market analysts attributing the slump partly to concerns that tariffs would dampen global trade activity and reduce oil demand.
The Art of the Deal… or Just the Art of the Announcement
The ongoing saga of trade deals, or the lack thereof, continues to provide endless material. The current jeopardy of a trade deal with the EU, coupled with threats of a “virtually universal tariff” exceeding 10%, is a fresh reminder of the constantly shifting sands of policy. [Bloomberg Google Alert] This comes after a period where Trump had, in April 2025, paused his “reciprocal tariffs” for most countries for 90 days, setting a 10% baseline, which sent the Dow soaring by 7.9% and the S&P 500 by 9.5%. The market’s whiplash-inducing reactions to these flip-flops are a testament to the power of a single individual’s pronouncements. As Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director for U.S. Bank Asset Management, sagely noted, “It makes the environment less certain when you have a single person controlling tariff rates rather than a Congressional bill.” Indeed, who needs legislative predictability when you have dramatic suspense?
The constant threats, from a 35% tariff on Canada to a potential 15-20% for over 150 nations, keep everyone guessing. And let’s not forget the 100% “secondary tariffs” threatened against Russia if the Ukraine war isn’t resolved within 50 days. [MSN Google Alert] It’s a high-stakes poker game where the rules change with every hand, and the market is left to interpret the bluffs from the genuine threats. The only consistent policy seems to be the policy of unpredictability.
Curtain Call
In conclusion, the stock market’s relationship with Donald Trump’s policy announcements remains a fascinating, if occasionally frustrating, study in volatility and adaptation. It’s a world where copper futures can surge 17% on a whim, where major indices can hit record highs even as key components are “dragged down,” and where analysts debate whether the market is “muted” or simply “numb” to the constant barrage of tariff threats. The drama continues, the numbers fluctuate, and the world watches, wondering what the next act will bring. One thing is for certain: the show, for better or worse, must go on. And Wall Street, ever the resilient audience, will be there, ready to react.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.