Ah, the sweet symphony of market stability. Or, in the current economic climate, perhaps more accurately, the cacophony of a brass band attempting to play a lullaby while simultaneously juggling chainsaws. Welcome to July 2025, where President Donald Trump’s trade policy continues to provide the kind of thrilling, unpredictable entertainment usually reserved for reality television, but with significantly higher stakes for your portfolio.
Just when you thought the global trade landscape might settle into a predictable rhythm, the Trump administration has once again proven that consistency is, well, consistently inconsistent. The past few days alone have delivered a dizzying array of tariff threats, new deals, and policy pronouncements, leaving market participants to decipher whether they should be buying champagne or stocking up on canned goods. The underlying theme? Keep ’em guessing, and maybe, just maybe, they’ll call it a “strong economy.”
Copper’s Comical Contradiction
If there’s one commodity that truly embodies the current market mood, it’s copper. On July 20, President Trump announced a rather significant 50% tariff on copper imports, effective August 1, 2025. This wasn’t just a casual suggestion; it was a “surprise announcement” that “caught the market off guard,” particularly given that initial expectations for such tariffs hovered around a mere 10% to 25%. The stated aim? To “bolster domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.”
The market’s reaction was, predictably, anything but straightforward. COMEX copper futures, representing the U.S. market, promptly surged to all-time highs, climbing more than 12% on July 9 following the tariff news and experiencing an “immediate 50% surge” in futures prices by July 20. This, of course, makes perfect sense if you’re a domestic producer suddenly facing less competition. However, for those operating outside the U.S., it was a different story. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell sharply, with the three-month contract dropping 1.35% to $9,658 a metric ton on July 9, creating a record spread of over $2,700 per ton between COMEX and LME. Similarly, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) saw its most traded copper contract decline by 1.36% to 78400 yuan (US$10,920.28).
As StoneX Senior Metals Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray so eloquently put it, the market was indeed “caught off guard”. Meanwhile, Michael Wu, an analyst for Shanghai Metals Market, observed that “virtually no one in Asia who wants to buy copper to deliver to the U.S. at this time.” One can only imagine the frantic rerouting of shipments and the collective sigh of resignation from global supply chain managers. It seems the policy aims to enhance U.S. industrial competitiveness by making foreign copper prohibitively expensive, leading to price increases that “threaten to cascade through multiple industries”. A truly innovative approach to competitiveness, if we do say so ourselves.
The Global Tariff Gauntlet
Copper wasn’t the only target in this week’s geopolitical game of “Pin the Tariff on the Trading Partner.” The administration has been busy sending “additional tariff letters” to 14 trading partners, marking a “continuation of its trade policy approach”. These letters are apparently the “first step toward policy reforms aimed at avoiding the full implementation of the tariffs”. Translation: “We’re threatening you, but maybe we won’t, if you play nice.”
Specific highlights from the past few days include:
- A new 19% trade deal with Indonesia, where the U.S. is set to sell billions in exchange, making Indonesia the third country to finalize a trade deal under Trump’s tariff threats. Nothing says “negotiation” like a good old-fashioned threat.
- A whopping 50% tariff on Brazil, which analysts predict will “harm both Brazilian coffee producers and American consumers”. Because who doesn’t love a more expensive morning brew?
- Threats of 35% tariffs on Canada. Our neighbors to the north must be thrilled.
- A possible meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at APEC to “ease US-China trade war” tensions, even as China faces a 34% tariff on steel, and the European Union a 20% tariff. The on-again, off-again nature of the U.S.-China relationship continues to provide endless material for market strategists and therapists alike.
- A surprising 30% tariff for Mexico and the EU. Because why not add more layers to the already complex trade onion?
- And, in a rare moment of de-escalation, a new trade deal with Vietnam, which saw a 90% tariff dropped. A glimmer of hope, or just a strategic pause before the next round of announcements? Only time, and perhaps a Truth Social post, will tell.
Wall Street’s Stoic Shrug
Given this whirlwind of policy shifts, one might expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite to be in a perpetual state of panic. Yet, the broader market’s reaction has been, shall we say, remarkably resilient, if not a little bewildered. As of mid-July 2025, the S&P 500 was up 6.2% year-to-date, the Dow up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq a respectable 5.76% to record levels of 20,895. The MSCI USA index, in USD terms, is up almost 5% since Trump’s return to office, “back at record highs”.
On July 10, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite even managed to hit “all-time highs”. While there have been minor dips – for instance, on July 11, the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, the Dow down 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 down 1.3% after “further tariff announcements” – the overall trend has been one of surprising buoyancy. Even on July 14, despite “latest tariff threats,” the Dow and S&P 500 rose 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, with the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.3% to another record high.
This apparent nonchalance has led some analysts to note a “dangerous disconnect” between the administration’s aggressive trade stance and the market’s continued optimism. It’s as if Wall Street has adopted a “wait-and-see approach,” having “seen this playbook before”. As U.S. Bank’s Rob Haworth observed, having a “single person controlling tariff rates rather than a Congressional bill” certainly makes the environment “less certain”. Indeed, the sheer unpredictability has become the only predictable element.
J.P. Morgan’s Fabio Bassi, in a moment of understated wisdom, suggested that equity markets might remain “range-bound,” with a bull case only achievable with “broad trade agreements, a decline in volatility and an improvement in sentiment”. Goldman Sachs Research, ever the pragmatists, estimates that sustained tariffs could reduce S&P 500 earnings per share by 2-3%, and noted that during Trump’s previous term, the S&P 500 fell a cumulative 5% on tariff announcement days. Yet, the current market seems to be shrugging off these historical precedents, perhaps hoping that the tariffs are merely a “negotiating tactic” rather than a permanent fixture.
The Truth Social Echo Chamber
Amidst the tariff pronouncements, President Trump has continued to leverage his preferred communication platform, Truth Social. From condemning the release of an illegal immigrant to announcing Coca-Cola’s alleged agreement to revert to cane sugar in drinks, Truth Social remains a direct line to the President’s thoughts. While these posts offer fascinating insights into the administration’s priorities, the Google Alerts provided no direct, immediate market reactions tied to Truth Social‘s stock or specific companies mentioned, beyond the general market sentiment it might influence.
Conclusion: The Art of the Deal, Redux
In the first six months of his second term, President Trump has delivered the kind of market volatility and resilience that investors have come to expect. Tariffs are in place, yet inflation has “yet to move meaningfully,” and the job market remains “steady”. Corporate earnings for Q2 2025 are expected to slow, “likely affected by disruptions from policy uncertainty and tariff shifts”. The average applied U.S. tariff rate has surged from 2.5% to an estimated 27% earlier this year, settling around 15.8% by June 2025, and now accounts for 5% of federal revenue, compared to a historical 2%.
The market, it seems, has developed a thick skin, or perhaps a severe case of cognitive dissonance. It continues to brush aside tariff concerns, reaching new highs even as the trade landscape shifts beneath its feet. The “dangerous disconnect” persists, with investors seemingly betting that the President’s bark is worse than his bite, or at least, that the bite won’t be fatal. As one market strategist sagely noted, “We’ve seen this playbook before, and until there’s a clear escalation or a surprise, investors are taking a wait-and-see approach.” One can only wonder what constitutes “clear escalation” in an environment where 50% tariffs on critical commodities and threats to major trading partners are just another Tuesday. Perhaps the market is simply waiting for the next tweet, the next announcement, the next chapter in this endlessly fascinating, and occasionally terrifying, trade saga.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.