In the grand theater of global finance, few acts command attention quite like a pronouncement from former President Donald J. Trump. Markets, ever the eager audience, oscillate between collective sighs of relief and bewildered shrugs, often cheering for outcomes that, in a saner world, might induce mild panic. The past week has been no exception, offering a masterclass in this peculiar dynamic, as trade deals and geopolitical interventions continue to shape—or perhaps, merely entertain—the indices.
The Art of the Deal, Redux: Japan Edition
The latest installment of the trade saga saw the U.S. and Japan finally ink a deal, reducing a previously threatened 25% tariff on Japanese imports to a more palatable 15%. One might imagine such a tariff, however reduced, would still be met with trepidation. Yet, Wall Street, apparently operating on a sliding scale of acceptable pain, greeted the news with a collective standing ovation. On Wednesday, July 23, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied a robust 507 points, or 1.1%, closing at 45,010.29. Not to be outdone, the S&P 500 added 0.8% to reach an all-time high of 6,358.91, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6% to hit its own record of 21,020.02.
Across the Pacific, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 truly celebrated, surging 3.5% to 41,171.32, a level not seen in over a year. Japanese automakers, the presumed targets of the tariffs, saw their shares soar: Toyota jumped 14%, Honda rose 10%, and Nissan was up close to 8%. Mazda, perhaps in a fit of pure joy, rose 18% to hit its daily limit. As Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, sagely observed, “It’s a sign of the times that markets would cheer 15% tariffs. A year ago, that level of tariffs would be shocking. Today, we breathe a sigh of relief.” One can almost hear the collective sigh of relief from traders, thankful that the sword of Damocles, though still very much present, had merely been lowered a few inches.
Analysts, ever keen to rationalize the irrational, pointed to the removal of uncertainty as the primary driver. Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, noted the deal was positive because it removed uncertainty for Japanese companies, even if the tariff rates remain significantly higher than pre-Trump levels. Indeed, the market’s enthusiasm seems less about the inherent goodness of tariffs and more about the sheer relief of having *any* clarity. Japanese business officials, speaking off-record (and one can hardly blame them for their discretion), privately remarked on their hesitation to comment publicly, given Trump’s penchant for changing his mind. This, apparently, is the new normal: a state of perpetual anticipation, where a less-bad outcome is hailed as a triumph.
Not everyone was popping champagne corks, however. George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars, cautioned that there’s “not much cause for long-term celebration,” arguing that while clarity is good, high tariffs still contribute to inflation and pressure growth. Meanwhile, some U.S. companies felt the pinch. Texas Instruments (TXN) sank 13.3% after executives offered cautious commentary on how tariff uncertainty could slow demand. Hasbro (HAS) also saw its stock fall 0.9% after taking a $1 billion non-cash hit due to tariffs. And Enphase Energy (ENPH) plummeted nearly 8% in pre-market trading after warning that Trump’s solar import tariffs would shrink the U.S. residential solar market by 20% in 2026. So, while the indices soared on the headline, the devil, as always, was in the details for individual sectors.
Geopolitical Meddling: A New Frontier for Trade?
Beyond the realm of traditional trade negotiations, Trump’s influence extended to an unexpected arena: international conflict resolution. In a move that truly blended diplomacy with deal-making, the former President took to Truth Social to announce his mediation efforts between Thailand and Cambodia, urging an “immediate Ceasefire and Peace” amid escalating border clashes. The kicker? He explicitly stated that the U.S. would not get back to the “Trading Table” with these nations until the fighting stops. Because, apparently, nothing motivates peace like the prospect of a good trade deal (or the threat of losing one).
This unique approach, delivered via social media, saw Trump claiming both nations were “looking to get back to the ‘Trading Table’ with the United States,” a proposition he deemed “inappropriate to do until such time as the fighting STOPS.” Thailand’s acting Prime Minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, politely thanked Trump and “agrees in principle to have a ceasefire in place” but added a caveat about needing “sincere intention from the Cambodian side.” Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet, meanwhile, appeared to “misunderstand or misrepresent” Thailand’s position, claiming Bangkok agreed to an immediate ceasefire. The nuanced dance of international relations, now choreographed on Truth Social, with trade deals as the ultimate carrot (or stick).
Truth Social: The Stock that Tweets
Speaking of Truth Social, the platform itself, operated by Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), continues its own volatile journey on the public markets. Described by analysts as a “highly speculative asset,” deeply tied to political events and social media sentiment, DJT‘s performance is less about traditional fundamentals and more about the daily news cycle surrounding its namesake.
On July 18, 2025, DJT fell 2.56%, declining from $19.16 to $18.67, fluctuating by nearly 5% that day. This came after a period where the stock had decreased in seven of the preceding ten days, resulting in a 1.63% decline over that period. Its long-term trajectory is even more dramatic, showing a “dramatic collapse” of 75% from its post-SPAC IPO highs of around $79 down to the current $19.15 range. As of July 26, 2025, DJT closed at $19.14 (+0.05%). While some reports on July 26 suggested a 10% surge due to a $2 billion Bitcoin allocation, the closing price movement remained modest, highlighting the stock’s unpredictable nature.
Analysts are divided on its future, with some suggesting it’s currently overvalued by approximately 30%. Forecasts range wildly, from predictions of a strong finish to 2025, potentially reaching $279, to a more bearish outlook of settling around $14.36 by 2026. The stock’s performance, it seems, is less a reflection of its business model and more a barometer of political fervor and speculative retail investor activity. It’s a market where the fundamentals are often overshadowed by the headlines, and a company’s valuation can hinge on a single social media post.
The New Normal: Pricing in the Unpredictable
The overarching theme emerging from the past week’s market reactions is a curious adaptation to unpredictability. As Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at GLOBALT, aptly put it, “The market has been anticipating that the deals are going to get done… Personally, I have a bit more skepticism. You’ve got to be careful, because if they don’t get done, there is more room for disappointment than there is upside.” This sentiment underscores a market that has learned to price in the “Trump factor”—the constant threat of tariffs, the sudden trade deals, and the policy flip-flops often delivered via social media. The “TACO” trade, a tongue-in-cheek acronym for “Trump always chickens out,” has become a recognized phenomenon, where initial tariff threats are often followed by partial retreats, leading to market relief.
While the immediate reactions to reduced tariffs and diplomatic interventions are often positive, driven by the perceived reduction of uncertainty, the underlying economic realities remain. The Bank of England has warned that sharply higher tariffs could trigger corporate defaults and bank losses. And Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle noted that while tariff pass-through to consumer prices has been lower than in 2019, tariffs are still having an effect on corporate profits. So, while the market may cheer the latest “deal,” it’s a cheer born not of unbridled optimism, but of a weary acceptance of the chaotic dance between policy and profit. In this environment, investors aren’t just analyzing balance sheets; they’re decoding tweets and preparing for the next unexpected twist in the ongoing saga of the Trump economy.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.