Ah, the stock market. A bastion of rational thought, predictable trends, and calm, measured responses to global events. Or so we were told. Enter Donald J. Trump, whose mere pronouncements, often delivered via social media, have transformed the hallowed halls of finance into a high-stakes, perpetually disoriented carnival ride. The latest Google Alert entries paint a vivid picture of this ongoing spectacle, where policy flip-flops are the main act and investor whiplash is the inevitable souvenir.
The Tariff Tango: A Dance of Dread and Desensitization
Remember when a tariff threat sent shivers down Wall Street’s spine? Those were simpler times. Back in April 2025, President Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs triggered nothing short of a global stock market crash. The S&P 500 plummeted below 5,000 points for the first time in nearly a year, wiping out trillions in global equity value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped a staggering 1,679 points, or 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 6% on April 3, 2025, marking the worst single-week decline for US indices since March 2020. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 wasn’t spared, dropping 6.6%. It was pure, unadulterated panic, a financial reenactment of a bad B-movie monster flick.
Fast forward to July 2025, and the plot thickens, or perhaps, thins out. The recent barrage of tariff announcements, targeting everyone from Canada to copper, has been met with a curious blend of resignation and a dash of “seen this movie before” ennui. When President Trump announced a hefty 35% tariff on Canada on July 11, 2025, US stock market futures did indeed dip. Dow Jones futures fell 0.69%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.67%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.63% in pre-market trading. A predictable, if mild, shudder.
Then came the 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union, announced on July 12, 2025. One might expect a full-blown market meltdown, given the sheer volume of trade involved. Yet, the reaction was remarkably subdued. On July 12, the Dow Jones was down a mere 0.20% (-86.6 points), the S&P 500 barely registered a blip at -0.01% (-0.6 points), and the Nasdaq, ever the contrarian, actually advanced 0.25% (+52.69 points). By July 14, 2025, major indices even closed marginally up, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.20% to 44,459.65, the S&P 500 gaining 0.14% to 6,268.56, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.27% to 20,640.33. What gives?
Analysts, bless their hearts, have a theory. Carol Fong, CEO of CGS International Securities Group, suggests that global financial markets are becoming “desensitised” to Trump’s tariff moves, even coining the rather delightful “Taco theory”: “Trump Always Chickens Out”. It appears investors have learned that a presidential tweet threatening economic Armageddon is often followed by a strategic “pause” or a “negotiation” that softens the blow. Indeed, a 90-day pause on additional higher tariffs (excluding China) in April 2025 led to a significant market rally, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hitting all-time highs by late June 2025. It’s less a policy and more a performance art piece, and the audience is getting wise to the script.
The Metals and Molecules Merry-Go-Round
Beyond the broad strokes, President Trump’s laser focus on specific sectors has also provided its share of market theatrics. Take copper, for instance. On July 9, 2025, the announcement of a looming 50% tariff on all imported copper sent US Comex copper futures jumping more than 12% to a record high. This wasn’t just about trade; Trump declared it a national security issue, citing copper’s necessity for everything from semiconductors to hypersonic weapons. The market, ever pragmatic, simply adjusted the price of the shiny red metal upwards. Meanwhile, US stock futures on July 10, 2025, saw a slight dip, with Nasdaq futures down 0.1% and S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures 0.2% lower. Small potatoes, it seems, for a critical strategic material.
Then there’s the pharmaceutical sector. Trump’s threats of a 20% immediate tariff, potentially rising to a staggering 200% in a year, caused the S&P 500 index of drugmakers to drop slightly, with shares of industry giants like Eli Lilly, Merck, and Pfizer trending down. One might wonder if the administration considered the potential for higher medicine costs for American patients, but then again, that would imply a level of detailed policy foresight that often seems optional in this administration.
Truth Social, Tesla, and the Tangled Web of Influence
It’s not just trade policy that moves markets in the Trump era; sometimes, it’s the sheer force of personality, particularly when wielded on social media. The ongoing saga of Elon Musk and his on-again, off-again bromance with Donald Trump has proven particularly volatile for Tesla (TSLA) shareholders. On July 7, 2025, Tesla shares tumbled a dramatic 8% at the opening bell as the feud between CEO Elon Musk and Trump reignited. Musk’s announcement of forming a new political party, coupled with Trump’s Truth Social declaration that Musk had gone “off the rails,” sent investors scrambling. Earlier, on July 1, 2025, Tesla’s stock price dropped 4.9% by midday after Trump suggested reviewing government subsidies for Musk’s companies, with the stock briefly falling below $300 before settling at around $303.46. The company’s stock had already dropped more than 9.2% since the public feud began last month and over 21% since the start of the year. It seems that in the age of political celebrity, even a tech mogul’s political aspirations can directly impact his company’s valuation, proving that the market truly discounts everything, even presidential pique.
And speaking of social media, the latest Google Alerts also highlight President Trump’s use of Truth Social for policy announcements, such as the reduction of Indonesia’s reciprocal tariff rate to 19% on July 15, 2025. This direct-to-investor communication, bypassing traditional channels, adds another layer of unpredictable fun to the market’s daily grind.
Even Coca-Cola (KO) found itself in the spotlight. On July 17, 2025, KO stock saw a modest 0.6% gain, trading at $69.66, after President Trump announced that the beverage giant would start using cane sugar in its products in the U.S.. The only catch? Coca-Cola itself didn’t immediately corroborate this “sweet deal”. One can almost hear the collective sigh from beverage industry analysts trying to decipher policy from presidential pronouncements.
Analyst Angst and the Art of Adaptation
Amidst this constant churn, analysts are doing their best to make sense of the chaos. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s Chief US Equity Strategist and CIO, has consistently warned that Trump’s tariff policy could impact the market in Q3, specifically hitting corporate profits, especially for smaller businesses. He foresees a potential 5-10% market correction as tariffs take hold, noting that investors’ patience with the “tariff farce” is wearing thin. Wilson also predicts that inflation may begin to rise in Q3, potentially undermining expectations for interest rate cuts. It’s a delicate dance between policy and market sentiment, and the music keeps changing.
However, not everyone is ringing the alarm bells quite so loudly. Goldman Sachs Research, for example, suggests that while Trump’s tariff announcements caused a surge in trade policy uncertainty, the actual impact on economic activity has been “barely visible”. They initially feared a substantial drag on investment and jobs but now believe the peak trade policy uncertainty drag on growth should be “behind us”. Similarly, Jason Pride, Chief of Investment Strategy & Research at Glenmede, observes that despite initial fears, the tariffs and Trump’s signature economic legislation might broadly offset each other, leading to more investor confidence. It seems the market, like a seasoned surfer, is learning to ride the waves of Trump-induced volatility, anticipating the swells and dips with a practiced eye.
The Enduring “Trump Effect”
Ultimately, the latest market reactions to President Trump’s announcements underscore a peculiar new normal. The initial shock value of tariff threats has diminished, replaced by a cynical appreciation for the administration’s theatrical approach to trade. While significant announcements, like the “Liberation Day” tariffs, can still trigger sharp corrections, the market’s response to subsequent, more targeted threats has become increasingly muted, almost as if investors are collectively shrugging and waiting for the next plot twist. The average US tariff rate, which soared from 2.5% to an estimated 27% in April 2025, has since settled to around 15.8% by June 2025, a testament to the dynamic, and often contradictory, nature of this administration’s policies. Despite the ongoing tariff saber-rattling, US stock indexes remain near record highs, proving that even in a climate of perpetual uncertainty, the market finds a way to adapt, or at least, to pretend it’s not entirely fazed. It’s a masterclass in market psychology, where the unexpected has become the expected, and the only constant is the captivating, if exhausting, drama emanating from the highest office.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.