Ah, the stock market. A bastion of logic, predictability, and calm, right? Not when Donald J. Trump is in the news cycle. As the latest Google Alerts confirm, navigating the financial landscape under the perennial influence of the former (and potentially future) President is less about fundamental analysis and more about anticipating the next plot twist in a reality TV show. With tariff deadlines looming, trade deals materializing (and then un-materializing), and digital platforms struggling, investors are once again reminded that the only constant is the delightful inconsistency.
The Tariff Tango: A Theatrical Production
The air is thick with anticipation as the much-discussed 90-day pause on President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff regime barrels towards its expiration at 12:01 a.m. ET on July 9. For those keeping score, these aren’t just any tariffs; we’re talking about rates that could “boomerang back” to an unprecedented 50% on certain imports, a move analysts have generously described as the most protectionist U.S. trade policy in over a century. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with a straight face, confirmed on July 6, 2025, that tariffs will indeed kick in on August 1 if trading partners from Taiwan to the European Union don’t strike deals. He insists it’s “not a new deadline,” merely a statement of when “it’s happening.” How reassuring.
The implications, naturally, are dire. Economists have issued dire warnings about a potential “cascading global slowdown,” and analyses suggest Trump’s tariffs could cost U.S. employers a cool $82.3 billion. J.P. Morgan Research even chimed in, estimating that tariffs could reduce global GDP by a full 1%. Yet, in a twist that would make a seasoned playwright weep, a White House insider recently let slip that Trump’s tariff threats are, in fact, just a “theatrical show.” One must admire the commitment to the bit, even if it costs the global economy a few billion. BRICS nations, apparently not in on the joke, have voiced “serious concerns” and are expected to decry the tariffs as “illegal” and a risk to the global economy.
The Art of the Deal (or the Art of the Deal-ish)
Beyond the tariff theatrics, President Trump has been busy on the trade deal front, demonstrating a unique approach to international diplomacy. Take TikTok, for instance. On July 6, 2025, Trump announced upcoming talks with China, confidently declaring, “We Pretty Much Have A Deal.” He even hinted at a “possible buyer” for the popular app. However, a quick check of the fine print reveals that China has already “shown dissent and indicated it will not approve the deal after Trump announced high tariffs on Chinese goods.” It seems “pretty much” has a rather flexible definition in this administration.
Then there’s the curious case of Vietnam. On one hand, President Trump announced a trade deal that would “let U.S. goods into the country duty-free.” A win, surely? Not so fast. Another alert, published on the same day, described what “appears to be a horrible trade deal for the United States and Vietnam.” And just for good measure, yet another headline proclaimed a “U.S.-Vietnam Trade Deal with 20% Import Tariff.” One can only assume these are all equally accurate, depending on which side of the bed the President woke up on. It’s a masterclass in keeping everyone guessing, especially the market.
The Market’s Mirthful Mood: A Study in Cognitive Dissonance
Despite this symphony of uncertainty and contradiction, the U.S. stock market, bless its resilient heart, continues its perplexing dance. As of July 4, 2025, the major indices were in a rather chipper mood. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed at $44,828.53, up a respectable +0.77%. The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) gained +0.83% to $6,279.35, hitting an all-time high. Not to be outdone, the NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) surged +1.02% to $20,601.10. These gains were reportedly “bolstered by progress on a US-Vietnam trade deal and the near-final House approval of President Trump’s $3.4 trillion tax-and-spending bill.” One might wonder which version of the Vietnam deal they were celebrating.
It’s a pattern we’ve seen before. The S&P 500, for instance, has risen an impressive 26% from April 8, when stocks initially “bottomed” following Trump’s “draconian April 2 tariff announcement.” It seems the market, like a seasoned spouse, has learned to roll with the punches, or perhaps, to simply buy the dip. U.S. equity markets, though volatile, have been on a “generally upward trend since early April,” with the S&P 500 topping its all-time high by the end of June 2025, generating a total return of over 6% year-to-date. The Cboe Vix volatility index, often dubbed the “fear gauge,” currently stands at a stable 16.38, suggesting a “bullish run” is still possible. This resilience, however, is not without its peculiarities. Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, noted that this has been a “junkier rally, a more speculative rally,” largely driven by “retail market participants and corporate share buybacks,” with institutional investors remaining “more reticent.” Meanwhile, foreign investors, perhaps less accustomed to the daily drama, withdrew $5 billion from U.S. equity ETFs over the last month, marking the largest outflow in at least three years. Clearly, some prefer their market movements less… theatrical.
Apple’s Orchard of Uncertainty: A Tariff-Induced Rollercoaster
No company embodies the Trump-era market rollercoaster quite like Apple (AAPL). The tech giant, with its sprawling global supply chain, is a prime target for tariff talk. On May 23, 2025, Apple shares fell 3.7% in pre-market trading to $193.90 after President Trump warned of a 25% tariff on iPhones made outside the U.S. The stock later tumbled 2.7% by midday, dragging down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, ever the pragmatist, dismissed Trump’s demand for U.S. iPhone production as a “fairy tale,” estimating it would take “5-10 years to shift production” and result in an iPhone price of “~$3,500.”
This wasn’t an isolated incident. Earlier, on April 4, 2025, Apple stock had plunged 7.3% to $188.38, marking a 15.9% decline since a previous tariff announcement. Analysts at the time projected that tariffs could slash Apple‘s 2026 earnings per share by a significant 12-28%. Yet, in a testament to the market’s short memory or perhaps its boundless optimism, an April 14, 2025, report noted that Apple was actually a “key beneficiary” of Trump’s decision to exempt the tech sector from “crippling China tariffs,” leading analysts to revisit price targets upwards. It’s almost as if the market enjoys the thrill of the chase, reacting violently to threats only to rebound when the immediate danger passes, or when the policy shifts again.
Truth Social’s Unvarnished Truth: A Different Kind of Volatility
Beyond the broader market, companies directly tied to the Trump brand offer their own unique brand of volatility. Take Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), the parent company of Truth Social. As of June 23, 2025, the company was reportedly down a staggering 46% for the year. This came after it announced a $400 million stock buyback, ironically, after reporting a $400 million loss and a rather adventurous “Bitcoin reserve plan.” Following its merger in March 2024 (when it was still DWAC), the stock initially surged, giving the company a nominal value of $4.48 billion, only to shed 20% on a single day after its profit and loss results were announced. In February 2025, an SEC filing revealed a net loss of $401 million on a paltry $3.6 million in revenue for 2024. It seems even a direct connection to the former President doesn’t guarantee a smooth ride on the public markets, though it certainly guarantees a lively one.
The Show Must Go On
In conclusion, the Trump effect on stock markets remains a fascinating study in paradox. It’s a landscape where policy announcements are often followed by immediate jitters, only for the market to either shrug them off, rally on perceived “relief,” or simply adapt to the new (and often contradictory) normal. The constant stream of tariff threats, trade deal pronouncements, and policy flip-flops creates a unique brand of uncertainty that analysts warn “undermines investor confidence.” Yet, somehow, the major indices continue to hit new highs, driven by a mix of corporate earnings, retail enthusiasm, and perhaps, a collective market amnesia. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell succinctly put it, the Fed “would have cut rates further if not for Trump’s tariffs.” So, as the July 9th tariff deadline looms and new “deals” are announced, investors can rest assured: the drama, and the market’s baffling resilience, will undoubtedly continue. It’s the greatest show on Earth, and your portfolio has a front-row seat. Just try not to spill your popcorn.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.