Ah, the stock market. A fickle beast, swayed by everything from geopolitical rumblings to a particularly strong cup of coffee in the Oval Office. And when it comes to the latter, few have stirred the pot quite like Donald J. Trump. Recent Google Alert entries paint a familiar picture: a flurry of tariff announcements, trade deal pronouncements, and the inevitable market gyrations that follow. It’s less a steady hand on the tiller and more a game of high-stakes Jenga, with global economies as the blocks.
The Art of the Deal (and the Drop)
Let’s talk tariffs, shall we? The latest buzz involves a potential 50% tariff on copper imports, set to kick off August 1st. This delightful news, sprung upon the market on July 8th, sent COMEX copper futures surging by a rather enthusiastic 13% that very day, hitting $11,290 per ton. Analysts, ever the optimists, initially expected a mere 25% tariff, proving once again that under Trump, expectations are merely suggestions. The premium on LME copper prices, the global benchmark, also saw a dramatic increase, fluctuating between $500 and $1,500 per ton in July, a stark contrast to the average of $150 in 2024. This, of course, is fantastic news for anyone who enjoys paying more for, well, everything that uses copper. US companies, bless their hearts, are expected to absorb these increased costs by compressing their margins, rather than passing them on to consumers. Because who needs profit when you have patriotism?
The copper chaos isn’t an isolated incident. Trump’s administration has a penchant for “double surprises,” as one Reuters analyst so eloquently put it, regarding both the tariff rate and the minimal adjustment time. This has led to an “unprecedented stockpiling” of refined copper in the U.S. between March and May 2025, amounting to a staggering 541,600 metric tons – 60% of 2024’s total annual imports in just three months. Apparently, the American supply chain now operates on a “buy everything now, ask questions later” philosophy. China, ever the pragmatist, has responded by accelerating exports and shifting production to avoid these tariffs, demonstrating a remarkable supply chain flexibility. It seems even trade wars have their silver linings, if you’re a Chinese manufacturer.
UPS: Unpredictable Parcel Service?
Speaking of supply chains, spare a thought for UPS. The package delivery giant, a bellwether for global trade, recently reported second-quarter results that missed profit expectations, citing “economic uncertainty” and the “escalation in international tariffs.” On July 29th, UPS shares fell 8.8% in the afternoon session, and were down a whopping 10% in late-afternoon trading. The company’s adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.55, just shy of the $1.57 analysts predicted, and a noticeable drop from $1.79 per share a year ago. Revenue, while slightly ahead of forecasts at $21.2 billion, still represented a nearly 3% decline year-over-year. CEO Carol Tomé, in a masterclass of understatement, noted the company continues to operate in “a dynamic and evolving trade environment.” Dynamic, indeed. So dynamic, in fact, that UPS opted not to provide full-year financial guidance, leaving investors to ponder the mysteries of the universe and the future of global shipping. The stock is now off 26% year-to-date. Patience, apparently, is a virtue for UPS investors, alongside a strong stomach for volatility.
The Indices: A Dance of Delusion?
Despite the tariff-induced tremors, the broader market seems to be playing a game of “look over there!” The S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and even the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average have seen their share of ups and downs. On July 29th, Wall Street saw stocks fall, with the Dow down 0.46% (204.57 points) to close at 44,632.99, the Nasdaq falling 0.38% (80.29 points) to 21,098.29, and the S&P 500 dropping 0.3% (18.91 points) to 6,370.86. This came after a “record-setting run” for the S&P 500, which had repeatedly topped all-time highs in recent weeks. It seems investors are pricing the U.S. stock market as if there’s “no longer any risk of a tariff-driven recession.” A bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.
Analysts, in their infinite wisdom, are now more focused on “hard data to validate the economic and policy outlook, rather than over-interpreting trade agreements.” One might argue that the “hard data” *is* the trade agreements, but who are we to quibble with market strategists? The IMF, in a move that can only be described as optimistic, upgraded its growth forecast, citing “global resilience to Trump’s tariffs.” Apparently, the world is just shrugging off these economic body blows with a casual “tis but a scratch.”
The Perpetual Trade Truce Tango
The U.S. and China are still engaged in their perpetual “tariff truce” negotiations, with an extension by 90 days being one option. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that President Trump will make the final call on the pending tariff truce. It’s almost as if the global economy is a reality TV show, with cliffhangers and dramatic pronouncements. Meanwhile, the EU and the U.S. struck a deal that will see a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the U.S., a “better than nothing” outcome compared to the threatened 30%. European capitals are putting a “brave face” on this deal, which will “permanently cost” trans-Atlantic goods trade. Because nothing says “good deal” like a permanent cost.
In essence, the market continues its bewildering dance. On one hand, record highs and “resilience.” On the other, companies like UPS are feeling the pinch, and copper prices are doing the Macarena. It’s a testament to the market’s ability to compartmentalize, or perhaps, its sheer exhaustion from trying to keep up with the latest policy pronouncements. As one analyst from UBS Global Wealth Management sagely noted, “While we expect equities to advance over the next 12 months, investors should be mindful of potential market swings in the coming weeks.” In other words, enjoy the ride, but keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times. And maybe, just maybe, don’t bet the farm on the next tweet.
DISCLAIMER: We read Trump’s posts so you don’t have to. This is comedy meets market data, not financial advice. Not political advice either – we just like charts and chaos.
Elana Harper is a seasoned financial editor and market analyst with over a decade of experience covering global equities, economic trends, and corporate earnings. Known for her sharp insights, Elana specializes in making complex financial topics accessible to a broad audience. She now serves as the Senior Financial Editor at Stock Market Watch, where she oversees daily market coverage and political commentary.