{"id":14540,"date":"2011-11-07T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-07T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.thestockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/jim-rogers-forecasts-us-collapse\/14539\/"},"modified":"2011-11-07T14:30:00","modified_gmt":"2011-11-07T14:30:00","slug":"jim-rogers-forecasts-us-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/jim-rogers-forecasts-us-collapse\/14540\/","title":{"rendered":"Jim Rogers Forecasts US Collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-1408583772585547\";\n\/* SMW - News Links *\/\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"3490797620\";\ngoogle_ad_width = 468;\ngoogle_ad_height = 15;\n\/\/-->\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\n<\/script><\/p>\n<p><!--Ad Injection mfunc mode ad include code--><br \/>\n<!--mfunc include_once('\/mnt\/Target01\/327806\/www.thestockmarketwatch.com\/web\/content\/stock-market-news\/wp-content\/plugins\/ad-injection\/adshow.php') --><br \/>\n<!--\/mfunc--><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><em>By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/markets\/commodities\/today.aspx\">Commodities<\/a> king Jim Rogers takes a definitive stand on the outlook for the US economy, and it&#8217;s not good.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">Speaking with Rupert Murdoch&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/video.foxbusiness.com\/v\/1254872723001\/investor-jim-rogers-has-gloomy-outlook-for-us-markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Fox Business<\/em><\/a>, Rogers Holdings Chairman Jim Rogers said, \u201c<span style=\"color: #000000;\">Every 4-6 years throughout history we&#8217;ve had an economic slowdown in the United States, so we&#8217;re overdue.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><!--mfunc adshow_display_ad_file_v2(array('ad_random_1.txt'), array(100), array('align' => 'float right', 'clear' => '', 'margin_top' => '', 'margin_bottom' => '', 'padding_top' => '', 'padding_bottom' => ''), array(), array()) --><\/p>\n<div style=\"float:right;margin-left:5px;\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-1408583772585547\";\n\/* SMW - in News 300 *\/\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"5684630733\";\ngoogle_ad_width = 300;\ngoogle_ad_height = 250;\n\/\/-->\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><!--\/mfunc--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe still have serious problems throughout the world. The U.S. is in fact in worse shape than Europe,\u201d he added. \u201cEurope is getting the press these days because the debts are coming due but America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">In fact, given a US budget deficit slated for <\/span><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><em>at least<\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"> $1.6 trillion for fiscal 2012, Rogers&#8217; outlook implies an apocalyptic scenario for global markets, a scenario forwarded by the <a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/metal\/gold-price.aspx\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"gold price today\">gold<\/a> bugs\u2014who&#8217;ve been, so far, spot on for so long with their message about gold&#8217;s historical role as money of last resort. <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/oi.vresp.com\/?fid=149ce5c982\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-family: Georgia;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-small;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Sign-up for my 100% FREE Alerts!<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">As Europe fails, again, to issue (euro)3 billion of EFSF <a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/markets\/bonds\/today.aspx\">bonds<\/a>, Greece 1-year yields reach 200 percent, and Italy experiences a blowout to a 6.6 percent yield for the 10-year, the US dollar <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><em>creeps<\/em><\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"> up against the euro, but drops like stone against gold.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">Traders and sovereign wealth fund managers appear to see things the same way as Rogers about the prospects of the US dollar going into 2012. He said, if it can be imagined (Nonagenarians, those 90 to 99-years-old, remember), a worse downturn than 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201c<span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">The next time we have an economic slowdown it will be terrible,\u201d he said. \u201cI would expect it to be around 2012 or 2013.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">Rogers added, \u201cThe next slowdown is going to be worse than in 2008, which was worse than in 2002.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">Anyone who follows Rogers closely knows one thing: he rarely sticks his neck out with precise targets, low-balling or high-balling his assessments with caution when asked for a time line or price targets for gold, stocks, or anything, for that matter. Typically, Rogers skirts the handicapping game with his pocket response, \u201cI don&#8217;t know; I&#8217;m the world&#8217;s worst trader, __________ (add interviewers first name here)\u201d <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">So when Rogers puts a time of 2012 or 2013, he most likely means 2012, leaving another year as a buffer for the Fed&#8217;s inability to hide negative GDP growth any further. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Moreover, given Bernanke&#8217;s lowered forecast for US GDP (under 3 percent) following the latest FOMC meeting last week, investors can be assured the US economy is, indeed, tanking.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">And if tip-toeing around the issue of denying the realization of a continuation of the US &#8216;Depression&#8217; is not your cup of tea, and you&#8217;ve given up on Martin Feldstein&#8217;s <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><em>National Bureau of Economic Research&#8217;s<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"> (NBER) cave-ins to political pressure, start following leading economics forecasting firm, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), whose statement posted on its website in September didn&#8217;t mince words about the future of the US economy.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Co-founder &amp; COO of <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><em>Economic Cycle Research Institute <\/em><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">(ECRI), Lakshman Achuthan posted on its <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businesscycle.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">website<\/a>, \u201cEarly last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. <\/span><\/span><\/span><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">And there\u2019s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u201d (emphasis added).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Central banks have been net buyers of gold and net sellers of US Treasuries this year. Gold continues to reassert itself as the ultimate reserve currency, trading higher against the dollar on Monday as Europe reaches new crisis highs. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<hr>\n<table style=\"border:none;margin:0;\">\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:5px;vertical-align:top;\" valign=\"top\">\n.<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:5px;vertical-align:top;\" valign=\"top\">\n<div style=\"font-size:11pt;\"><b>Post Written By: Mr. Dominique de Kevelioc, de Bailleul <\/b><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-size:10pt;\">\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\ngoogle_ad_client = \"pub-1408583772585547\";\n\/* 336x280, created 7\/9\/11 *\/\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"3552319058\";\ngoogle_ad_width = 336;\ngoogle_ad_height = 280;\n\/\/-->\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\n<\/script><\/p>\n<div style=\"margin:5px;margin-bottom:20px;font-size:11pt;\">&laquo; 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