{"id":14731,"date":"2011-11-09T16:12:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-09T16:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.thestockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/endgame-silver-price-464-90-per-ounce\/14731\/"},"modified":"2011-11-09T16:12:00","modified_gmt":"2011-11-09T16:12:00","slug":"endgame-silver-price-464-90-per-ounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/endgame-silver-price-464-90-per-ounce\/14731\/","title":{"rendered":"Endgame, Silver Price $464.90 per ounce?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-1408583772585547\";\n\/* SMW - News Links *\/\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"3490797620\";\ngoogle_ad_width = 468;\ngoogle_ad_height = 15;\n\/\/-->\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\n<\/script><\/p>\n<p><!--Ad Injection mfunc mode ad include code--><br \/>\n<!--mfunc include_once('\/mnt\/Target01\/327806\/www.thestockmarketwatch.com\/web\/content\/stock-market-news\/wp-content\/plugins\/ad-injection\/adshow.php') --><br \/>\n<!--\/mfunc--><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><em>By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">Who among the <a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/metal\/silver-price.aspx\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"silver price today\">silver<\/a> bugs wouldn&#8217;t salivate at the thought of the silver price reaching $465 per ounce at the endgame of this global currency regime?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">Well, if we can dream a bit, based first, an a reasonable assumption that Goldmoney&#8217;s James Turk&#8217;s estimate of the <a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/metal\/gold-price.aspx\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"gold price today\">gold price<\/a> of $11,000 (based on his Gold Money Index. Read about it, <a href=\"\/web\/20111110111406\/http:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/recent-events\/business-news\/market-updates\/goldmoneys-james-turk-11000-gold-price\/13754\">here<\/a>. Graph on KWN&#8217;s website, <a href=\"http:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/kingworldnews\/KWN_DailyWeb\/Entries\/2011\/10\/24_James_Turk_Report_-_Why_Gold_Will_Go_Above_$11,000_files\/KWN%20-%20James%20Turk,%20The%20Gold%20Money%20Index,%20Chart%202.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>.) will pan out as a pretty accurate one, and with a little help from a statistical program and a rudimentary knowledge (stressing the word, rudimentary) of least-squared analysis and curve-fitting techniques, a little math of what the silver price will look like at $11,000 and a &#8216;fair&#8217; value for silver on the way up the golden (in this case, silver rainbow) rainbow can be estimated<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">. <\/span><\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/oi.vresp.com\/?fid=149ce5c982\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #a90000;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-small;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Sign-up for my 100% FREE Alerts!<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><!--mfunc adshow_display_ad_file_v2(array('ad_random_1.txt'), array(100), array('align' => 'float right', 'clear' => '', 'margin_top' => '', 'margin_bottom' => '', 'padding_top' => '', 'padding_bottom' => ''), array(), array()) --><\/p>\n<div style=\"float:right;margin-left:5px;\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-1408583772585547\";\n\/* SMW - in News 300 *\/\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"5684630733\";\ngoogle_ad_width = 300;\ngoogle_ad_height = 250;\n\/\/-->\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><!--\/mfunc--><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">Using data from the SLV and GLD ETF&#8217;s, from Apr. 28, 2006 (first day SLV data was available) to the present, curve-fitting the data with the knowledge that as gold prices rises, silver prices rises faster over time\u2014another reasonable assumption\u2014we can plot a least-square line through the data to project (oh, the best of intentions, without regard to Nassim Taleb&#8217;s fine work on those dreaded &#8216;Black Swans&#8217;) a reasonable silver price.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">The <em>Black Box<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\">The formula that appears to fit the data reasonably well, for those mathematically inclined to know about issues surrounding least-squared analysis, is <span style=\"font-size: medium;\">y=a*x<\/span><sup><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">b<\/span><\/sup><span style=\"font-size: small;\">, where &#8216;y&#8217; equals the silver price output, &#8216;a&#8217; calculates to a coefficient <\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\">equal to 1.5318690640999211E-03<\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\">, &#8216;x&#8217; equals the gold price, and another coefficient &#8216;b&#8217;, calculates to 1.3577678746161117E+00. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">As &#8216;x&#8217;, the gold price, increases, the power &#8216;b&#8217; increases the rate for the silver price, &#8216;y&#8217;. Among the hundreds of formulas that can be used to &#8216;fit&#8217; the data, the &#8216;scaled power&#8217; functions may be a good place to start as a foundation of analysis. Adjusting for the disparity in price on the GLD and SLV of 2.8 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, the spot price is estimated.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Now for the drum roll; cranking the formula, using 1,395 data points, we get the following <\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><em>mean estimates<\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\">:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Gold = $1,000 Silver = $17.92 Ratio = 55.80<br \/>\nGold = $1,500 Silver = $31.08 Ratio = 48.26<br \/>\nGold = $1,750 Silver = $38.32 Ratio = 45.67<br \/>\nGold = $2,000 Silver = $45.93 Ratio = 43.54<br \/>\nGold = $2,500 Silver = $62.19 Ratio = 40.20<br \/>\nGold = $3,000 Silver = $79.65 Ratio = 37.66<br \/>\nGold = $5,000 Silver = $159.38 Ratio = 31.37<br \/>\nGold = $10,000 Silver = $408.47 Ratio = 24.48<br \/>\nGold = $11,000 Silver = $464.90 Ratio = 23.66<br \/>\nGold = $12,500 Silver = $553.02 Ratio = 22.60<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">The graph of the data, below, shows the plot from Apr. 2006 to the present:<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/g-s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-14732\" title=\"Gold &amp; Silver Relationship\" src=\"https:\/\/storage.googleapis.com\/smw-news-wp\/2011\/11\/g-s.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"438\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Note that <a href=\"\/web\/20111110111406\/http:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/recent-events\/business-news\/market-updates\/goldmoneys-james-turk-11000-gold-price\/13754\">James Turk&#8217;s<\/a> estimate for the gold price (probably will be revised higher as central banks inflate their balance sheets) of $11,000 calculates to a silver price of $464.90 and a ratio between gold and silver of 23.66. Jim Sinclair&#8217;s $12,500 target price for the gold price calculates to a silver price of $553.02 and a ratio of 22.60.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">According to <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Silver_as_an_investment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wiki<\/a>, in 1970, prior to the US scraping the gold standard in 1971, the gold to silver ratio averaged 22.0. Today&#8217;s mining data and above-ground supplies of silver look much different from Jan. 1980, so an average ratio of 22.0 during the year of the summit most likely will not turn out to be a reasonable one. And the manic spike could take the ratio anywhere. Right?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">As the gold price knocks on the door of $1,800, the above least-squares equation suggests today&#8217;s silver is under-priced by more nearly $6.00 per ounce. Sprott Asset Management&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.beaconequity.com\/silver-price-much-too-low-eric-sprott-2011-10-24\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Eric Sprott<\/a> may be correct, based on the above quick-and-dirty formula, a silver price closer to between $39 and $40 wouldn&#8217;t be unreasonable here.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<hr>\n<table style=\"border:none;margin:0;\">\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:5px;vertical-align:top;\" valign=\"top\">\n.<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:5px;vertical-align:top;\" valign=\"top\">\n<div style=\"font-size:11pt;\"><b>Post Written By: Mr. Dominique de Kevelioc, de Bailleul <\/b><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-size:10pt;\">\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\ngoogle_ad_client = \"pub-1408583772585547\";\n\/* 336x280, created 7\/9\/11 *\/\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"3552319058\";\ngoogle_ad_width = 336;\ngoogle_ad_height = 280;\n\/\/-->\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\n<\/script><\/p>\n<div style=\"margin:5px;margin-bottom:20px;font-size:11pt;\">&laquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/\">Return to Stock Market News<\/a> &laquo; <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul Who among the silver bugs wouldn&#8217;t salivate at the thought of the silver price [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50312,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"rank_math_schema_Article":[],"rank_math_focus_keyword":[],"rank_math_description":[],"financial_data_references":[],"stock_symbols_mentioned":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}