{"id":51867,"date":"2025-08-12T08:38:41","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T12:38:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/opec-boosts-2026-oil-demand-forecast-amid-rising-production-ecb-sees-rates-at-very-good-level\/51867\/"},"modified":"2025-08-12T08:38:41","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T12:38:41","slug":"opec-boosts-2026-oil-demand-forecast-amid-rising-production-ecb-sees-rates-at-very-good-level","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/opec-boosts-2026-oil-demand-forecast-amid-rising-production-ecb-sees-rates-at-very-good-level\/51867\/","title":{"rendered":"OPEC Boosts 2026 Oil Demand Forecast Amid Rising Production; ECB Sees Rates at &#8216;Very Good Level&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>OPEC has significantly raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) while trimming its non-OPEC+ supply growth prediction for the same year to 630,000 bpd, signaling a tighter market outlook.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>OPEC+ crude output saw a substantial increase in July, rising by 335,000 bpd from June to average 41.94 million bpd, following a recent output hike; OPEC&#39;s own crude production also rose by 263,000 bpd to 27.54 million bpd.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>OPEC now projects a lower growth in U.S. liquids output next year, with an expected increase of just 130,000 bpd, a significant downgrade from earlier forecasts, making Brazil the largest source of non-OPEC+ output expansion.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stated that interest rates are at a &quot;very good level&quot; and inflation is no longer a major challenge, though he cautioned against excessive optimism and emphasized a &quot;steady hand&quot; amid tariff uncertainty.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Brazil&#39;s mid-month inflation (IPCA-15) for July accelerated to 0.33% month-over-month, while the annual rate edged up to 5.30%, remaining above the central bank&#39;s target.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today, revealing significant adjustments to its 2026 global oil market outlook. The cartel increased its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by <strong>100,000 bpd<\/strong> to <strong>1.38 million bpd<\/strong>, bringing total demand to <strong>106.52 million bpd<\/strong>. This upward revision reflects stronger expectations for consumption across the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 remains unchanged at <strong>1.29 million bpd<\/strong>, with total consumption seen at <strong>105.14 million bpd<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Simultaneously, OPEC has trimmed its 2026 forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth by <strong>100,000 bpd<\/strong> to <strong>630,000 bpd<\/strong>. A key factor in this adjustment is a downgraded outlook for U.S. tight oil output. OPEC now expects U.S. liquids output to rise by only <strong>130,000 bpd<\/strong> next year, an <strong>80,000 bpd<\/strong> reduction from last month&#39;s report and significantly lower than the <strong>510,000 bpd<\/strong> projected in January. This revision is attributed to <em>sustained capital discipline<\/em> and <em>weaker drilling activity momentum<\/em> in the U.S., positioning Brazil to become the largest source of non-OPEC+ output expansion in 2026, with an anticipated increase of <strong>160,000 bpd<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of production, OPEC&#39;s crude output from its 12 members rose by <strong>263,000 bpd<\/strong> in July to <strong>27.54 million bpd<\/strong>, according to secondary sources cited by the organization. The broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia and other allies, also saw its crude output average <strong>41.94 million bpd<\/strong> in July, marking an increase of <strong>335,000 bpd<\/strong> from June following recent output hikes.<\/p>\n<p>In the Eurozone, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Joachim Nagel provided an optimistic assessment of the monetary policy landscape. Nagel stated that interest rates are currently at a &quot;very good level&quot; and that the ECB can react flexibly if necessary. He added that inflation is &quot;no longer a major challenge,&quot; although he cautioned against <em>excessive optimism<\/em> and stressed the need for a &quot;steady hand&quot; in policy, particularly given ongoing tariff uncertainty. The ECB expects inflation to reach its <strong>2% target<\/strong> by the end of <strong>2025<\/strong> at the latest.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, in Brazil, the mid-month inflation rate, measured by the IPCA-15, accelerated in July. Monthly inflation (M\/M) registered <strong>0.33%<\/strong>, higher than the estimated <strong>0.26%<\/strong> and up from <strong>0.26%<\/strong> in June. The annual inflation rate (Y\/Y) for July edged up to <strong>5.30%<\/strong>, slightly above the previous month&#39;s <strong>5.27%<\/strong> and remaining above the central bank&#39;s <strong>3%<\/strong> target. Despite the slight acceleration, signs of easing underlying core inflation and the resilience of the Brazilian Real suggest the central bank is likely to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways OPEC has significantly raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per 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