{"id":52029,"date":"2025-08-15T08:38:48","date_gmt":"2025-08-15T12:38:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/mixed-economic-signals-and-trumps-trade-talk-dominate-markets-ahead-of-putin-summit\/52029\/"},"modified":"2025-08-15T08:38:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-15T12:38:48","slug":"mixed-economic-signals-and-trumps-trade-talk-dominate-markets-ahead-of-putin-summit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/mixed-economic-signals-and-trumps-trade-talk-dominate-markets-ahead-of-putin-summit\/52029\/","title":{"rendered":"Mixed Economic Signals and Trump&#8217;s Trade Talk Dominate Markets Ahead of Putin Summit"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index surged to 11.9 in August, significantly exceeding expectations, while July retail sales showed a slight deceleration from prior months.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Traders have trimmed their aggressive bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, though market consensus still anticipates a September rate cut followed by another later in 2025.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>President <a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/live\/trump-stock-market\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Trump\">Trump<\/a> announced impending tariffs on steel and chips next week, simultaneously asserting that China&#39;s economy is struggling and preparing for a high-stakes meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month in July, surpassing forecasts and suggesting potential inflationary pressures from abroad.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>HSBC downgraded networking giant Cisco (<a href=\"\/stock\/CSCO\">CSCO<\/a>), citing limited upside potential and missed fiscal Q4 results and 2026 outlook.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>U.S. Economic Data Presents Mixed Picture<\/h2>\n<p>Recent economic indicators offer a mixed view of the U.S. economy. The <strong>U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index<\/strong> for August soared to <strong>11.9<\/strong>, significantly outperforming expectations of 0.0 and rising sharply from the previous month&#39;s 5.5. This indicates a strong rebound in manufacturing activity within New York state.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, <strong>U.S. Retail Sales<\/strong> for July showed a slight moderation. Advance retail sales increased by <strong>0.5%<\/strong> month-over-month, falling short of the 0.6% estimate and the revised 0.9% from the previous month. Core retail sales, excluding autos, rose by <strong>0.3%<\/strong>, meeting expectations but down from the prior 0.5%. Despite the slight deceleration, consumer spending remains resilient, with some analysts noting consumers may have pulled purchases forward ahead of anticipated tariffs.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the <strong>U.S. Import Price Index<\/strong> for July increased by <strong>0.4%<\/strong> month-over-month, exceeding the estimated 0.1% and reversing a previous decline. This rise, particularly in petroleum prices, suggests that <em>imported goods could contribute to inflationary pressures<\/em>. The year-over-year import price index remained at <strong>-0.2%<\/strong>. In Canada, manufacturing sales for June saw a modest increase of <strong>0.3%<\/strong> month-over-month, a turnaround from the previous <strong>-0.9%<\/strong> decline but slightly below the 0.4% estimate.<\/p>\n<h2>Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift<\/h2>\n<p>Traders have begun to <em>trim their more aggressive bets<\/em> on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the odds of a September rate cut falling to around <strong>85%<\/strong> from near certainty. This reassessment follows a bigger-than-expected jump in U.S. wholesale prices, which suggested companies are passing along higher import costs related to tariffs. Despite this, a September rate cut is still widely anticipated, with markets pricing in at least half a percentage point of rate reductions by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Council of Economic Advisers Chair Miran declined to comment directly on pending rate cuts but stated that overall inflation indexes have been &quot;very well behaved.&quot; Miran also reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has maintained a <strong>1.9%<\/strong> rate since President <a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/live\/trump-stock-market\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Trump\">Trump<\/a> took office, and asserted there is &quot;no evidence whatsoever of tariff-induced inflation.&quot;<\/p>\n<h2>Trump&#39;s Trade and Foreign Policy Agenda<\/h2>\n<p>President Donald Trump is set to introduce new tariffs on <strong>steel and chips<\/strong> next week, though he indicated the initial rates would be lower. Trump previously stated that a 100% tariff on foreign-made semiconductors would be imposed, with exemptions for companies building in the U.S. The President also commented that <strong>China&#39;s economy is &quot;not doing well economically.&quot;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In foreign policy, President Trump has boarded an aircraft to attend a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Trump warned that the meeting &quot;could be severe consequences&quot; and that &quot;something is going to come of it.&quot; He emphasized that the two countries are &quot;not doing business until they get the war stopped&quot; in Ukraine, suggesting that ongoing attacks by Russia are likely an attempt at negotiation. Trump also stated that Ukraine &quot;has to decide territory&quot; in any potential resolution.<\/p>\n<h2>Corporate News: HSBC Downgrades Cisco<\/h2>\n<p>In corporate news, HSBC has downgraded networking giant <strong>Cisco Systems (<a href=\"\/stock\/CSCO\">CSCO<\/a>)<\/strong> from &quot;Buy&quot; to &quot;Hold,&quot; setting a price target of <strong>$69<\/strong>. The downgrade comes as HSBC believes further gains for Cisco will be harder to achieve, citing the company&#39;s fiscal Q4 results and 2026 outlook missing HSBC&#39;s estimates due to a slowing networking segment. HSBC noted that Cisco&#39;s strength in artificial intelligence infrastructure orders is being offset by weakness elsewhere.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways The U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index surged to 11.9 in August, significantly exceeding expectations, while July retail sales showed 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