{"id":52976,"date":"2025-09-11T04:08:40","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T08:08:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/iea-forecasts-looming-oil-surplus-amidst-robust-supply-growth-and-ev-headwinds\/52976\/"},"modified":"2025-09-11T04:08:40","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T08:08:40","slug":"iea-forecasts-looming-oil-surplus-amidst-robust-supply-growth-and-ev-headwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/iea-forecasts-looming-oil-surplus-amidst-robust-supply-growth-and-ev-headwinds\/52976\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA Forecasts Looming Oil Surplus Amidst Robust Supply Growth and EV Headwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/strong> has boosted its estimates for a <strong>record oil surplus in 2026<\/strong>, driven by strong supply growth from both <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> and non-OPEC+ producers.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Global oil supply<\/strong> reached a record <strong>106.9 million barrels per day (b\/d)<\/strong> in August, while <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> output is projected to increase by only <strong>40,000 b\/d<\/strong> from September to October, falling short of its <strong>137,000 b\/d quota increase<\/strong> due to capacity limitations within some member countries.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Oil stockpiles<\/strong> have seen a <strong>sixth consecutive monthly rise in July<\/strong>, with global stocks adding <strong>26.5 million barrels<\/strong> and cumulative growth since January reaching <strong>187 million barrels<\/strong>, signaling a loosening market.<\/li>\n<li>Despite rising supply, <strong>global oil demand<\/strong> is still projected to grow by <strong>740,000 b\/d in 2025<\/strong>, primarily driven by resilient demand in advanced economies.<\/li>\n<li>The IEA highlights <strong>China&#39;s rapid electric vehicle (EV) adoption<\/strong> as a &quot;fierce headwind&quot; to future gasoline use, significantly impacting long-term oil demand forecasts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its latest oil market outlook, painting a picture of an increasingly well-supplied global market with a significant surplus on the horizon. The agency has notably <em>boosted its estimates for a record oil surplus in 2026<\/em>, with forecasts suggesting an &quot;untenable&quot; excess of <strong>3 million b\/d<\/strong> in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Global oil supply hit a record high of <strong>106.9 million b\/d<\/strong> in August. This robust supply growth is expected to continue, with <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> output projected to rise by <strong>1.3 million b\/d in 2025<\/strong> and <strong>1 million b\/d in 2026<\/strong>. Non-OPEC+ producers are also set to contribute significantly, adding <strong>1.4 million b\/d in 2025<\/strong> and approximately <strong>1 million b\/d in 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>However, the IEA noted that the actual increase in <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> output from September to October is expected to be only <strong>40,000 b\/d<\/strong>, considerably less than the <strong>137,000 b\/d quota increase<\/strong>. This shortfall is attributed to capacity limits in some member countries, indicating potential constraints on the group&#39;s ability to fully meet its announced production targets.<\/p>\n<p>Adding to the signs of a loosening market, global oil stockpiles rose for the <strong>sixth consecutive month in July<\/strong>. This increase saw global oil stocks grow by <strong>26.5 million barrels<\/strong> in July, bringing the cumulative growth since January to <strong>187 million barrels<\/strong>. China&#39;s crude stocks alone increased by <strong>106 million barrels<\/strong> between February and August, helping to absorb some of the global supply surplus.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the expanding supply, global oil demand is still forecast to grow by <strong>740,000 b\/d in 2025<\/strong>, reaching <strong>103.87 million b\/d<\/strong>. This upward revision in demand growth is primarily due to <em>resilient oil demand in OECD countries<\/em> amidst an uncertain macroeconomic climate, with strong data observed in the US, Germany, Italy, and South Korea. The IEA maintains its demand growth forecast for 2026 at <strong>700,000 b\/d<\/strong>, bringing total consumption to <strong>104.57 million b\/d<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>A significant factor influencing long-term oil demand is <strong>China&#39;s rapid adoption of electric vehicles<\/strong>. The IEA identifies this trend as a &quot;fierce headwind&quot; to gasoline use, with China continuing to lead in EV sales, manufacturing, and battery production. This shift is expected to <em>displace more than 5 million barrels of oil per day globally by 2030<\/em>, with China accounting for half of these savings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways The International Energy Agency (IEA) has boosted its estimates for a record oil surplus in 2026, driven by 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