{"id":58661,"date":"2026-02-17T13:38:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T17:38:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/us-energy-secretary-wright-forecasts-venezuelan-oil-surge-signals-continued-friction-with-iea\/58661\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T13:38:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T17:38:27","slug":"us-energy-secretary-wright-forecasts-venezuelan-oil-surge-signals-continued-friction-with-iea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/us-energy-secretary-wright-forecasts-venezuelan-oil-surge-signals-continued-friction-with-iea\/58661\/","title":{"rendered":"US Energy Secretary Wright Forecasts Venezuelan Oil Surge, Signals Continued Friction with IEA"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Venezuela is projected to add several hundred thousand barrels per day (bpd) of oil production by the end of 2026<\/strong>, following a 30% to 40% growth forecast from current levels of <strong>1 million bpd<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>US Energy Secretary Chris Wright remains &quot;not yet satisfied&quot; with reforms at the International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/strong>, despite the agency reintroducing more conservative modeling scenarios.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Major energy firms including Chevron (<a href=\"\/stock\/CVX\">CVX<\/a>), Shell (<a href=\"\/stock\/SHEL\">SHEL<\/a>), and BP (<a href=\"\/stock\/BP\">BP<\/a>)<\/strong> have received expanded licenses to operate in the Orinoco Belt as the US effectively ends its decade-long embargo.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The US government plans to control Venezuelan oil sales and revenue<\/strong>, with Secretary Wright estimating that exports could generate <strong>$5 billion in revenue<\/strong> within the coming months to fund the country&#39;s interim administration.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>US Energy Secretary <strong>Chris Wright<\/strong> announced on Tuesday that the United States expects a significant surge in Venezuelan crude output, projecting that the South American nation could add <strong>several hundred thousand barrels per day (bpd)<\/strong> to global markets by the end of 2026. Speaking during a high-profile visit to the <strong>Orinoco Belt<\/strong>, Wright characterized the shift as a &quot;pivot in history&quot; for the region&#39;s energy sector.<\/p>\n<p>The production boost is expected to be driven by a <strong>30% to 40% increase<\/strong> in activity from existing and new joint ventures. Chevron (<a href=\"\/stock\/CVX\">CVX<\/a>), currently the most prominent American operator in the country, is reportedly on target to <strong>double production<\/strong> at its Petropiar facility within the next 12 to 18 months. <em>Market analysts suggest that such a rapid expansion could place significant downward pressure on global benchmarks like Brent and WTI.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In addition to the Venezuelan forecast, Secretary Wright delivered a stern critique of the <strong>International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/strong>, stating that the US is &quot;not yet satisfied&quot; with the pace of changes at the Paris-based organization. The friction stems from the Trump administration&#39;s demand that the IEA return to <strong>&quot;fact-based&quot; forecasting<\/strong> rather than what Wright describes as &quot;politicized&quot; advocacy for green energy transitions.<\/p>\n<p>While the IEA recently reintroduced its <strong>&quot;Current Policies Scenario&quot; (CPS)<\/strong> to reflect existing energy pathways more accurately, Wright indicated that the agency has not gone far enough to prioritize <strong>global energy security<\/strong>. The US, which provides approximately <strong>18% of the IEA\u2019s budget<\/strong>, has previously threatened to withdraw funding or exit the agency entirely if its modeling remains &quot;unrealistically green.&quot;<\/p>\n<p>The Treasury Department has already issued new general licenses allowing global majors such as Shell (<a href=\"\/stock\/SHEL\">SHEL<\/a>), BP (<a href=\"\/stock\/BP\">BP<\/a>), Eni (<a href=\"\/stock\/E\">E<\/a>), and Repsol (<a href=\"\/stock\/REPYY\">REPYY<\/a>) to re-engage with the Venezuelan state oil firm <strong>PDVSA<\/strong>. Wright emphasized that the majority of this new production will flow to <strong>US refineries in Florida<\/strong>, helping to lower domestic prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.<\/p>\n<p>Under the current US strategy, Washington will <strong>oversee oil sales and control the resulting revenue<\/strong>, depositing funds into US-controlled accounts to ensure they are used for humanitarian and infrastructure purposes. <em>This &quot;leverage-based&quot; approach aims to stabilize the Venezuelan economy while simultaneously securing a massive new source of heavy crude for the American market.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Venezuela is projected to add several hundred thousand barrels per day (bpd) of oil production by the end 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