{"id":58712,"date":"2026-02-18T10:08:19","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T14:08:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/us-housing-and-durable-goods-beat-expectations-amid-difficult-ukraine-russia-talks-in-geneva\/58712\/"},"modified":"2026-02-18T10:08:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T14:08:19","slug":"us-housing-and-durable-goods-beat-expectations-amid-difficult-ukraine-russia-talks-in-geneva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/us-housing-and-durable-goods-beat-expectations-amid-difficult-ukraine-russia-talks-in-geneva\/58712\/","title":{"rendered":"US Housing and Durable Goods Beat Expectations Amid &#8220;Difficult&#8221; Ukraine-Russia Talks in Geneva"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>US Housing Starts surged to 1.404 million in December<\/strong>, far exceeding the <strong>1.304 million<\/strong> estimate and marking a <strong>6.2% month-over-month increase<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Durable Goods orders ex-transportation grew by 0.9%<\/strong>, tripling the expected <strong>0.3%<\/strong> growth, signaling resilient demand in the manufacturing sector.<\/li>\n<li><strong>High-level diplomatic talks in Geneva<\/strong> between Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky and Ukrainian officials were described as <strong>&quot;difficult but important&quot;<\/strong> following a two-hour closed-door session.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Japan\u2019s Takaichi signaled a fundamental overhaul of the government budget<\/strong>, including potential tax cuts through a <strong>refundable tax credit system<\/strong> to be implemented over two years.<\/li>\n<li><strong>US Energy Secretary Wright projected Venezuelan oil output could grow 30%-40% this year<\/strong>, providing a potential boost to global supply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>US Economic Data Shows Resilience Despite Regional Service Slump<\/h2>\n<p>The US housing market showed unexpected strength in December, with <strong>Housing Starts reaching 1.404 million units<\/strong>, well above the forecasted <strong>1.304 million<\/strong>. <strong>Building Permits<\/strong> also topped expectations at <strong>1.448 million<\/strong> against a <strong>1.400 million<\/strong> estimate. This robust activity suggests that the construction sector, represented by the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (<a href=\"\/stock\/ITB\">ITB<\/a>), remains a pillar of economic growth despite higher interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing data provided a mixed but ultimately positive surprise. While overall <strong>Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4%<\/strong>\u2014impacted by the volatile transportation sector\u2014the figure was better than the <strong>2.0% decline<\/strong> analysts had feared. More importantly, <strong>Durables Ex-Transportation rose 0.9%<\/strong>, significantly outperforming the <strong>0.3%<\/strong> consensus. However, the <strong>New York Fed Services Business Activity index<\/strong> plummeted to <strong>-25.7<\/strong> in February, missing the <strong>-14.2<\/strong> estimate and highlighting a sharp contraction in regional service sector sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>Following the data release, the <strong>U.S. Dollar Index (<a href=\"\/stock\/DXY\">DXY<\/a>)<\/strong> extended its gains, rising <strong>0.14% to 97.26<\/strong>. Meanwhile, the <strong>Effective Federal Funds Rate<\/strong> remained steady at <strong>3.64%<\/strong> as of February 17, with trade volume increasing to <strong>$97 billion<\/strong> from <strong>$90 billion<\/strong> earlier in the week.<\/p>\n<h2>Geopolitical Tensions and Diplomatic Maneuvers<\/h2>\n<p>Diplomatic efforts to address the conflict in Ukraine intensified in Geneva today. <strong>Vladimir Medinsky<\/strong>, Russia\u2019s chief negotiator, held a <strong>two-hour closed-door meeting<\/strong> with Ukrainian representatives. The head of President Zelenskiy\u2019s office characterized the conversation as <strong>&quot;difficult but important,&quot;<\/strong> suggesting that while a breakthrough remains elusive, communication channels remain active.<\/p>\n<p>In a separate geopolitical development, reports surfaced via Axios that <strong>Senator Marco Rubio<\/strong> has held secret talks with the grandson of <strong>Raul Castro<\/strong>, indicating potential back-channel shifts in US-Cuba relations. Simultaneously, Russia&#39;s <strong>Dmitry Medvedev<\/strong> met with Cuban Foreign Minister Rodriguez, underscoring Moscow&#39;s continued focus on strengthening ties with Caribbean allies.<\/p>\n<h2>Japan\u2019s Fiscal Pivot and Energy Outlook<\/h2>\n<p>In Japan, <strong>Sanae Takaichi<\/strong> outlined an ambitious plan to <strong>fundamentally overhaul the government budget<\/strong>, a process expected to take approximately two years. Takaichi emphasized the need for <strong>sustainable fiscal policy<\/strong> to maintain market trust and mentioned the possibility of <strong>tax cuts<\/strong> utilizing a <strong>refundable tax credit system<\/strong>. She also reiterated Japan&#39;s commitment to a <strong>&quot;Free and Open Indo-Pacific&quot;<\/strong> and vowed to strengthen national defense capabilities.<\/p>\n<p>On the energy front, US Energy Secretary <strong>Chris Wright<\/strong> offered a bullish outlook for South American production, stating that <strong>Venezuela\u2019s oil output could grow by 30% to 40% this year<\/strong>. Such a &quot;meaningful&quot; increase could impact global crude prices and the strategies of major energy firms like Chevron (<a href=\"\/stock\/CVX\">CVX<\/a>), which maintains a significant presence in the region. Wright\u2019s comments suggest a strategic US interest in diversifying energy sources amid ongoing global instability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways US Housing Starts surged to 1.404 million in December, far exceeding the 1.304 million estimate and marking a 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