{"id":59664,"date":"2026-03-11T13:38:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T17:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/trump-signals-progress-on-strait-of-hormuz-as-fitch-raises-oil-price-forecasts\/59664\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T13:38:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T17:38:29","slug":"trump-signals-progress-on-strait-of-hormuz-as-fitch-raises-oil-price-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/trump-signals-progress-on-strait-of-hormuz-as-fitch-raises-oil-price-forecasts\/59664\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Signals Progress on Strait of Hormuz as Fitch Raises Oil Price Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>President <a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/live\/trump-stock-market\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Trump\">Trump<\/a><\/strong> declared that efforts to reopen the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> are &quot;working out very well,&quot; though he warned that military operations against <strong>Iran<\/strong> are &quot;not finished yet.&quot;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fitch Ratings<\/strong> raised its near-term oil and gas price assumptions, citing a significant <strong>geopolitical risk premium<\/strong> that briefly pushed <strong>Brent crude<\/strong> toward <strong>$120 per barrel<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chubb<\/strong> (<a href=\"\/stock\/CB\">CB<\/a>) has been designated as the primary <strong>U.S. insurer<\/strong> for shipping in the <strong>Persian Gulf<\/strong>, supported by a new federal reinsurance program to stabilize maritime trade.<\/li>\n<li>The <strong>U.S. 10-Year Treasury<\/strong> auction drew a high yield of <strong>4.217%<\/strong>, showing a &quot;tail&quot; against pre-sale expectations as investors weigh energy-driven inflation risks.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fitch<\/strong> projects the <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong> will cut interest rates <strong>twice in 2026<\/strong> as a cooling labor market and slowing wage growth begin to weigh on <strong>U.S. consumption<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Geopolitical Tensions and the Strait of Hormuz<\/h2>\n<p>President <strong>Donald <a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/live\/trump-stock-market\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Trump\">Trump<\/a><\/strong> provided an optimistic update on the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, stating that the push to restore the flow of global energy is &quot;working out very well.&quot; Despite this progress, the President maintained a hardline stance toward <strong>Tehran<\/strong>, noting that the U.S. is &quot;not finished yet&quot; with military actions aimed at ending Iranian interference in the waterway. Trump also called for the removal of <strong>Hezbollah<\/strong> in <strong>Lebanon<\/strong>, where local authorities report that <strong>Israeli strikes<\/strong> have killed <strong>634 people<\/strong> since March 2.<\/p>\n<p>In a move that could signal a shift in European relations, Trump threatened to cut off trade with <strong>Spain<\/strong>, describing the country&#39;s leadership as &quot;not so good.&quot; Meanwhile, diplomatic backchannels remain active as <strong>Putin\u2019s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev<\/strong>, was reported to be in <strong>Florida<\/strong> meeting with members of the <strong>Trump administration<\/strong>. These talks come as the <strong>White House<\/strong> considers the potential for easing certain <strong>Russian oil sanctions<\/strong> to offset global supply disruptions.<\/p>\n<h2>Energy Markets and Insurance Stability<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Fitch Ratings<\/strong> has officially adjusted its near-term energy price assumptions upward to reflect the current market volatility. While the agency expects a price drop once the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> fully reopens, it noted that current levels are being driven by a &quot;very significant&quot; risk premium. To help manage the supply crunch, <strong>Canada<\/strong> has formally requested that its domestic oil industry release a portion of its <strong>strategic reserves<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>To secure the maritime corridor, <strong>Chubb<\/strong> (<a href=\"\/stock\/CB\">CB<\/a>) has been positioned as the lead U.S. insurer for <strong>Persian Gulf<\/strong> shipping. This move follows a period of extreme uncertainty where many private insurers had canceled war-risk coverage. The designation is expected to be backed by a <strong>U.S. government reinsurance facility<\/strong> of up to <strong>$20 billion<\/strong>, aimed at ensuring that oil tankers can continue to navigate the region despite the threat of Iranian mines and drone attacks.<\/p>\n<h2>Economic Outlook and Treasury Performance<\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>U.S. Treasury<\/strong> saw mixed demand during Wednesday\u2019s <strong>10-Year Note<\/strong> sale, which drew a high yield of <strong>4.217%<\/strong>, up from <strong>4.177%<\/strong> in the previous month. The auction\u2019s <strong>bid-to-cover ratio<\/strong> of <strong>2.45<\/strong> was slightly higher than the previous <strong>2.39<\/strong>, but the &quot;tail&quot; (the gap between the high yield and pre-sale expectations) suggests some investor hesitation. On the liquidity front, <strong>four counterparties<\/strong> took <strong>$0.552 billion<\/strong> at the <strong>Federal Reserve&#39;s<\/strong> daily reverse repo operation, a significant increase from the previous <strong>$0.278 billion<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Looking ahead, <strong>Fitch<\/strong> anticipates that the <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong> will implement <strong>two rate cuts<\/strong> during <strong>2026<\/strong>. The agency cited a &quot;cooling labor market&quot; and &quot;slowing wage growth&quot; as primary drivers that will eventually persuade the central bank to ease policy. While <strong>higher energy prices<\/strong> remain a headwind for the <strong>Eurozone<\/strong>, Fitch noted that underlying growth trends are improving, particularly as <strong>Germany<\/strong> begins a fiscal-led recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways President Trump declared that efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are &quot;working out very well,&quot; though he 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