{"id":60636,"date":"2026-04-07T11:38:27","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T15:38:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/oil-surges-as-trump-ultimatum-looms-ny-fed-inflation-expectations-spike\/60636\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T11:38:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T15:38:27","slug":"oil-surges-as-trump-ultimatum-looms-ny-fed-inflation-expectations-spike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/oil-surges-as-trump-ultimatum-looms-ny-fed-inflation-expectations-spike\/60636\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Surges as Trump Ultimatum Looms; NY Fed Inflation Expectations Spike"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Crude oil futures jumped $5 per barrel<\/strong> as the market braces for President <a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/live\/trump-stock-market\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Trump\">Trump<\/a>\u2019s 8:00 PM ET deadline for Iran to reopen the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> or face massive infrastructure strikes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NY Fed data shows one-year inflation expectations surged to 3.4%<\/strong> in March, with gasoline price growth expectations hitting their highest levels since early 2022.<\/li>\n<li><strong>U.S. and Israeli forces conducted targeted strikes<\/strong> on military assets at Iran\u2019s <strong>Kharg Island<\/strong> and regional railway lines, though oil export infrastructure remains reportedly intact for now.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bahrain has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council<\/strong> seeking international coordination for the security of maritime navigation and defensive escorts in the <strong>Arabian Gulf<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>European equity markets and UK Gilts sold off sharply<\/strong>, with the FTSE 100 and DAX both falling nearly 1% as geopolitical risk premiums and bond yields spiked.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Geopolitical Tensions Reach Boiling Point<\/h2>\n<p>Geopolitical instability reached a fever pitch on Tuesday as <strong>President Donald <a href=\"https:\/\/thestockmarketwatch.com\/live\/trump-stock-market\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Trump\">Trump<\/a><\/strong> issued a final ultimatum to Tehran. Trump warned that if the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> is not fully reopened by 8:00 PM ET, the U.S. will launch an attack &quot;the likes of which they have never seen,&quot; specifically targeting power plants and bridges. Despite the rhetoric, the state-run <em>Tehran Times<\/em> reported that indirect diplomatic channels with the U.S. remain open, suggesting a slim window for a last-minute deal.<\/p>\n<p>On the ground, military activity has already escalated. <strong>U.S. and Israeli forces<\/strong> carried out strikes on military targets at <strong>Kharg Island<\/strong>, a critical hub that handles roughly 90% of Iran&#39;s oil exports. While Iranian media outlet <em>Mehr<\/em> claims oil facilities were not damaged, local officials confirmed that the <strong>Alborz-Zanjan railway lines<\/strong> and several bridges were hit to disrupt the movement of military equipment.<\/p>\n<h2>Markets React to Supply Risks and Rising Yields<\/h2>\n<p>Global energy markets reacted violently to the looming deadline, with <strong>U.S. crude futures extending gains by $5 a barrel<\/strong>. The potential for a total blockade or retaliatory strikes on regional energy infrastructure has sent shockwaves through the sector. A spokesperson for <strong>Chevron Phillips Chemical<\/strong>, a joint venture of Chevron (<a href=\"\/stock\/CVX\">CVX<\/a>) and Phillips 66 (<a href=\"\/stock\/PSX\">PSX<\/a>), noted that while their Saudi Arabian facilities have not been directly impacted, the industry is on high alert.<\/p>\n<p>In the fixed-income and equity markets, the &quot;risk-off&quot; sentiment was palpable. <strong>UK 10-year Gilt yields<\/strong> rose 11 basis points to <strong>4.95%<\/strong>, marking the largest one-day jump in weeks. European indices closed significantly lower, with Germany\u2019s <strong>DAX<\/strong> down 0.99% and Britain\u2019s <strong>FTSE 100<\/strong> sliding 0.8%. Investors are increasingly concerned that a prolonged conflict in the Gulf will cement higher energy costs and stifle global growth.<\/p>\n<h2>Inflation Expectations and Trade Uncertainty<\/h2>\n<p>Domestic economic data added to the gloom as the <strong>New York Fed\u2019s March Survey of Consumer Expectations<\/strong> revealed a sharp uptick in inflation fears. One-year ahead inflation expectations rose to <strong>3.4%<\/strong>, up from 3% in February, while gasoline price expectations reached their highest point since March 2022. The survey also highlighted growing household pessimism regarding current and future financial stability.<\/p>\n<p>On the trade front, <strong>U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer<\/strong> signaled that the <strong>USMCA<\/strong> review process is facing hurdles. Greer noted that many issues may not be resolved by the July 1 deadline and emphasized that the agreement has yet to create the &quot;balanced trade&quot; originally intended. However, Greer struck a more moderate tone regarding <strong>China<\/strong>, stating that the U.S. is not looking for a &quot;massive confrontation&quot; and currently views the economic relationship as stable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Crude oil futures jumped $5 per barrel as the market braces for President Trump\u2019s 8:00 PM ET deadline 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