If you spent your weekend enjoying the fresh air instead of refreshing a specific social media feed, your portfolio likely has some questions for you this Monday morning. President Donald Trump has once again proven that the most powerful tool in global economics isn’t the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate lever, but a smartphone with a high-speed connection to Truth Social. Between announcing a “largely negotiated” Iran peace deal and threatening the European Union with the kind of math usually reserved for high-stakes poker, the 47th President has ensured that volatility is the only certain asset class in 2026.<\/p>\n
As of early trading on May 25, 2026, the markets are reacting with the grace of a startled gazelle. While the DOW is struggling to find a direction, the broader S&P 500<\/a> has dipped 0.4% in pre-market<\/a> action as traders attempt to decipher whether “largely negotiated” means a signing ceremony is imminent or if we are three posts away from a total trade embargo. Meanwhile, BTC<\/a> (+2.1%) has surged toward the $77,000 mark, apparently deciding that geopolitical uncertainty is the best fertilizer for digital gold<\/a>.<\/p>\n The headline act of the weekend was the sudden pivot toward Tehran. Trump announced that a peace agreement with Iran is “largely negotiated,” a phrase that carries the same weight as a contractor saying your kitchen remodel is “almost finished.” According to the President\u2019s posts, the deal involves reopening the Strait of Hormuz\u2014a vital artery for global energy\u2014but with a classic Trumpian twist: the U.S. naval blockade will remain firmly in place until the ink is dry. It\u2019s the diplomatic equivalent of holding a door open for someone while standing on their foot.<\/p>\n The energy sector, predictably, is having a minor identity crisis. XOM<\/a> (-1.8%) and CVX<\/a> (-2.2%) saw immediate downward pressure as the prospect of Iranian crude returning to the market sent Brent Crude sliding toward $72 a barrel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that while the “peace dividend” is theoretically bullish for global growth, the “blockade discount” is keeping everyone from popping the champagne just yet. It seems the market isn’t quite ready to price in Middle Eastern stability based on a “very lengthy post” that also managed to mention the Abraham Accords and a critique of the Obama administration\u2019s 2015 deal.<\/p>\n In the defense sector, the reaction was more somber. LMT<\/a> (-3.1%) and RTX<\/a> (-2.7%) saw volume spikes as investors pondered a world where “historic peace” might actually stick. However, seasoned traders know that a Trump “peace deal” often comes with a side of increased arms sales to allies, so the dip in defense stocks might be as short-lived as a ceasefire in a Michael Bay movie.<\/p>\n Not content with merely reshaping the Middle East, the President also turned his attention toward the European Union. In what can only be described as a “pay to play” ultimatum, Trump has reportedly threatened the EU with 35% tariffs unless they commit to $600 billion in investments within the United States. It\u2019s a bold strategy\u2014essentially telling your neighbors that if they don’t buy your lemonade, you\u2019re going to tax their windows.<\/p>\n The European markets aren’t exactly laughing. The DAX in Germany and the CAC 40 in France both saw early losses, while U.S.-listed European automakers took a direct hit. STLA<\/a> (-4.2%) and VWAGY<\/a> (-3.8%) are feeling the heat as the specter of a 25% to 35% hike on auto tariffs looms. It\u2019s a fascinating bit of economic theater: threatening to pull U.S. troops from Italy and Germany unless they buy more American-made goods. It\u2019s The Art of the Deal<\/i>, but with more tanks and fewer golf courses.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, TSLA<\/a> (+1.5%) managed to buck the trend, perhaps because investors believe Elon Musk\u2019s proximity to the administration provides a “tariff-proof” shield, or perhaps because the market has simply given up on applying logic to EV valuations in a trade war environment. The NASDAQ, heavily weighted with tech giants like NVDA<\/a> (+0.8%), remains cautiously optimistic, banking on the hope that “China talks” and “Taiwan arms deals” will somehow cancel each other out in the grand ledger of global chaos.<\/p>\n The President also took a swing at the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), threatening an additional 10% tariff on any country supporting “anti-American policies.” This is particularly spicy given that China has spent the last week eliminating tariffs on African nations in a clear attempt to “outmaneuver” the U.S. influence. It\u2019s a geopolitical game of Risk<\/i>, but the dice are made of trade data and the board is currently on fire.<\/p>\n Investors in emerging market ETFs, such as VWO<\/a> (-1.4%), are starting to look for the exits. The threat of a 10% “anti-American tax” is a difficult metric to model. How exactly does the Treasury Department define “anti-American”? Is it a vote in the UN, or simply a refusal to put a Trump-branded hotel in downtown New Delhi? The ambiguity is the point, but for AAPL<\/a> (-0.5%), which still relies heavily on global supply chains, the ambiguity is just another headache in a year already full of them.<\/p>\nPeace, Love, and Naval Blockades<\/h2>\n
The 35% Solution: Tariffs as a Love Language<\/h2>\n
BRICS and Mortar: The 10% Penalty<\/h2>\n
The Truth Social Terminal<\/h2>\n