{"id":63320,"date":"2026-06-17T12:08:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:08:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/us-and-iran-near-historic-ceasefire-as-fed-chair-warsh-faces-first-policy-test\/63320\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T12:08:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:08:15","slug":"us-and-iran-near-historic-ceasefire-as-fed-chair-warsh-faces-first-policy-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/us-and-iran-near-historic-ceasefire-as-fed-chair-warsh-faces-first-policy-test\/63320\/","title":{"rendered":"US and Iran Near Historic Ceasefire as Fed Chair Warsh Faces First Policy Test"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>US and Iran are reportedly moving to sign a war termination Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) as early as Wednesday<\/strong>, potentially reopening the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> and extending a ceasefire by <strong>60 days<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh<\/strong> concludes his first policy meeting today; markets widely expect rates to remain at <strong>3.50%\u20133.75%<\/strong>, but watch for a &quot;regime change&quot; in communication.<\/li>\n<li><strong>US <a href=\"https:\/\/stockmarketwatch.com\/energy\/crude-oil\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"12\" title=\"Crude oil\">crude oil<\/a> inventories plunged by 17.2 million barrels<\/strong> last week to <strong>758.5 million barrels<\/strong>, the lowest total level (including SPR) since <strong>March 1985<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Intel (<a href=\"\/stock\/INTC\">INTC<\/a>)<\/strong> has seen its price-to-sales ratio skyrocket from under <strong>2x<\/strong> to over <strong>11x<\/strong> in a year, reflecting aggressive market expectations for its foundry turnaround.<\/li>\n<li><strong>G7 leaders in Evian-les-Bains<\/strong> have signaled a shift in approach toward Ukraine, with French President Macron noting that <strong>President Trump<\/strong> acknowledged Russia&#39;s lack of willingness for peace.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Geopolitical Breakthrough: US-Iran MOU Signing Imminent<\/h2>\n<p>The United States and Iran are in active discussions to move up the signing of a landmark <strong>Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)<\/strong> to as early as Wednesday. According to reports from <em>Axios<\/em>, the deal would likely be signed <strong>electronically<\/strong>, with the U.S. expected to release the full text shortly thereafter. The primary goal of the accelerated timeline is to facilitate the reopening of the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, a critical global energy chokepoint, sooner than initially planned.<\/p>\n<p>While the deal aims to extend a current ceasefire for <strong>60 days<\/strong>, U.S. officials, including CIA&#39;s John Ratcliffe, remain skeptical of Tehran&#39;s long-term intentions regarding nuclear concessions. <strong>President Trump<\/strong> has described the MOU as &quot;pretty detailed&quot; and a &quot;wall to a nuclear weapon,&quot; though he cautioned that the process would restart if Iran fails to comply. Meanwhile, <strong>Italy<\/strong> has already announced plans to re-open its embassy in Tehran this Friday, signaling a broader European diplomatic shift.<\/p>\n<h2>Monetary Policy: The &quot;Warsh Era&quot; Begins at the Fed<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Kevin Warsh<\/strong> is presiding over his first <strong>Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/strong> meeting as Chair, with a decision due this afternoon. While a <strong>rate hold<\/strong> is priced in by over <strong>97%<\/strong> of traders, the focus is entirely on Warsh\u2019s first press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Investors are looking for clues on his &quot;framework for managing rates,&quot; as he faces conflicting pressure from a bond market wary of inflation and a president vocal about wanting cuts.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts expect Warsh may begin dismantling traditional Fed communication tools, such as the <strong>&quot;dot plot&quot;<\/strong> and frequent forward guidance. <em>Morningstar<\/em> reports that Warsh is expected to rely less on internal models and more on real-time market signals. Any signal of an &quot;eagerness to cut&quot; could risk spooking the bond market and driving up long-term yields, which are currently hovering around <strong>4.46%<\/strong> for the <strong>10-year Treasury<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Energy and Commodities: Inventories Hit 40-Year Lows<\/h2>\n<p>The <strong>Energy Information Administration (EIA)<\/strong> reported a massive draw in U.S. crude stocks, which fell by <strong>8.3 million barrels<\/strong> commercially and <strong>17.2 million barrels<\/strong> when including the <strong>Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)<\/strong>. This brings total U.S. holdings to their lowest point since <strong>1985<\/strong>. Stocks at the <strong>Cushing, Oklahoma<\/strong> hub also fell to critical operational lows of roughly <strong>20 million barrels<\/strong>, the lowest since 2014.<\/p>\n<p>In response to these supply shocks, <strong>Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi<\/strong> proposed a &quot;Joint Stockpiling Cooperation Initiative&quot; for critical minerals at the <strong>G7 Summit<\/strong>. The proposal, which was included in the final G7 outcome document, aims to counter China&#39;s dominance in the supply chain. The G7 also agreed to cooperate on the joint stockpiling of minerals like <strong>rare earths<\/strong> to ensure long-term industrial resilience.<\/p>\n<h2>Corporate and Trade: Intel Valuation and US-India Relations<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Intel (<a href=\"\/stock\/INTC\">INTC<\/a>)<\/strong> continues to be a focal point for tech investors as its valuation reaches levels not seen in decades. The company&#39;s <strong>price-to-sales ratio<\/strong> has jumped to approximately <strong>11.95x<\/strong>, up from under <strong>2x<\/strong> just twelve months ago. While the company\u2019s <strong>18A process roadmap<\/strong> has shown progress, some analysts at <em>Bernstein<\/em> suggest the stock may now be &quot;fully valued,&quot; with a forward P\/E ratio exceeding <strong>150x<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>On the trade front, <strong>President Trump<\/strong> met with Indian Prime Minister <strong>Narendra Modi<\/strong> at the G7, declaring that a bilateral trade deal is &quot;very close.&quot; Trump praised India&#39;s significant investments in the U.S. and reaffirmed that the U.S. would assist India if it were attacked. The two leaders are reportedly resolving the final &quot;1%&quot; of trade issues, which could significantly impact the defense and energy sectors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways US and Iran are reportedly moving to sign a war termination Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) as early as 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