{"id":65599,"date":"2026-07-29T08:08:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T12:08:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/middle-east-tensions-ease-as-shipping-traffic-surges-germany-weighs-oil-windfall-tax\/65599\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T08:08:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T12:08:13","slug":"middle-east-tensions-ease-as-shipping-traffic-surges-germany-weighs-oil-windfall-tax","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.stockmarketwatch.com\/stock-market-news\/middle-east-tensions-ease-as-shipping-traffic-surges-germany-weighs-oil-windfall-tax\/65599\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East Tensions Ease as Shipping Traffic Surges; Germany Weighs Oil Windfall Tax"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose significantly on July 28<\/strong>, with 53 confirmed crossings recorded as commercial operators navigate regional risks.<\/li>\n<li><strong>U.S. officials denied reports of a new attack<\/strong> following earlier conflicting claims, signaling a potential de-escalation in the ongoing regional conflict.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The German government is &quot;open&quot; to an excess profit tax<\/strong> for oil companies to alleviate consumer energy costs, though significant legal hurdles remain.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Shadow fleet and &quot;dark&quot; transits continue to mask risk<\/strong>, with 12 vessels identified using non-transparent routing in the Bab el-Mandeb strait alone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Shipping Traffic Rebounds Amid Persistent Risks<\/h2>\n<p>Commercial maritime activity in the Middle East&#39;s most critical chokepoints saw a notable uptick on July 28. A total of <strong>53 confirmed vessel crossings<\/strong> were recorded across the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> and <strong>Bab el-Mandeb<\/strong>. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reached <strong>12 transits<\/strong>, representing a <strong>50% increase<\/strong> from the previous day. Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb strait saw <strong>41 crossings<\/strong>, a <strong>5% rise<\/strong>, as shipping companies continue to test the waters despite the volatile security environment.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the increase in volume, transparency remains a primary concern for market analysts. In the Strait of Hormuz, <strong>10 of the 12 vessels<\/strong> utilized the Iranian unilateral scheme rather than the standard traffic separation scheme. In the Bab el-Mandeb, data identified <strong>4 dark transits<\/strong>, <strong>4 sanctioned vessel crossings<\/strong>, and <strong>8 shadow fleet movements<\/strong>. These behaviors reinforce that while commercial traffic is flowing, operational and compliance risks remain elevated for global energy markets.<\/p>\n<h2>De-escalation Hopes Rise as Attack Reports Refuted<\/h2>\n<p>Geopolitical tensions saw a brief moment of clarity on July 29 as <strong>U.S. officials confirmed that no new attack occurred<\/strong>, contradicting earlier reports cited by N12 and journalist Barak Ravid. The clarification comes at a sensitive time for energy markets, which have been on edge due to the U.S.-Iran conflict. <em>Market participants are closely watching for signs of a sustained ceasefire<\/em>, which could lead to a normalization of traffic in the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n<p>The earlier confusion underscored the fragility of the current &quot;lull&quot; in hostilities. While the U.S. has maintained a naval blockade of certain Iranian ports since mid-July, the absence of new kinetic strikes is seen as a positive signal for regional stability. Analysts suggest that the continued flow of tankers, including <strong>VLCCs<\/strong> carrying millions of barrels of crude, depends heavily on the perceived success of ongoing diplomatic negotiations.<\/p>\n<h2>Germany Considers Windfall Tax on Energy Giants<\/h2>\n<p>In Europe, the German government is intensifying its internal debate over how to manage soaring energy prices. A government spokesperson confirmed on July 29 that there is <strong>&quot;openness to the idea&quot; of an excess profit tax<\/strong> targeting major oil companies. This potential windfall tax is intended to fund relief measures for consumers, such as increasing commuter allowances or providing direct subsidies to low-income families.<\/p>\n<p>However, the proposal faces <strong>significant legal obstacles<\/strong> that could delay or prevent its implementation. While Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has championed the measure, other members of the coalition government have warned against &quot;knee-jerk reactions.&quot; Major energy firms, including Shell (<a href=\"\/stock\/SHEL\">SHEL<\/a>) and BP (<a href=\"\/stock\/BP\">BP<\/a>), are under scrutiny as their profits have surged during the conflict, with some estimates suggesting the world&#39;s largest oil companies could see an extra <strong>$234 billion<\/strong> in profit by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose significantly on July 28, with 53 confirmed crossings recorded as 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